Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.33-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 46.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 103.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INVA — director transition
Dated 2026-05-18
Director — Derek Small and Mark DiPaolo Esq.: The resignations were due to focusing on the growth of Syndeio BioSciences Inc.
Why it matters: Improving net income shows the company is managing costs well. This supports growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 net income shows a year-over-year increase.
Worry ifQ2 net income shows a year-over-year decline.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show problems in keeping revenue strong during tough market conditions.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is above 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that management is controlling costs. This is important for making more money long-term.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $38.2M in Q1 to above $40M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or stays below $38M in Q2.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect how the company runs. It matters to see how the new leaders change Innoviva's path.
Watch forGood news about new plans or actions from the new board members.
Also watch forNegative news or lack of direction from the new board members.
Why it matters: Stable royalty revenue is key for Innoviva's cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifQuarterly royalty revenue from GSK stays above $58 million for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifQuarterly royalty revenue from GSK falls below $58 million for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows management believes in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $125 million share repurchase program by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe program is not completed by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This helps the stock price.
Supportive ifInnoviva buys back over $50 million in shares by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks happen under the $125 million program by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Some directors have recently resigned. This may change the company's plans and stability.
Worry ifNew directors are appointed quickly to fill the vacancies.
Less concerning ifIf no new leaders are chosen, uncertainty will continue.
Why it matters: Reaching this sales target would confirm strong demand for Innoviva's products. It shows the effectiveness of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifU.S. net product sales of IST exceed $150 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifU.S. net product sales of IST fall short of $150 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Successful launch of NUZOLVENCE would expand Innoviva's product offerings and revenue streams. This is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifNUZOLVENCE is launched and generates revenue in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifNUZOLVENCE launch is delayed or fails to generate revenue in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Continued growth in U.S. sales would support management's claims of strong commercial momentum. It's a key indicator of performance.
Supportive ifQ3 IST U.S. net product sales grow year-over-year by more than 25%.
Worry ifQ3 IST U.S. net product sales decline year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $248 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,860 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.