Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$19.24-9.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 43.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INVA — director transition
Dated 2026-05-18
Director — Derek Small and Mark DiPaolo Esq.: The resignations were due to focusing on the growth of Syndeio BioSciences Inc.
Why it matters: The company plans a second-half launch. First sales would show that the new product has reached the market.
Supportive ifInnoviva reports that NUZOLVENCE is available to patients in 2026, with U.S. sales reported by year-end.
Worry ifThe company says NUZOLVENCE will not be available by December 31, 2026, or delays its launch past 2026.
Why it matters: The Dr. Reddy's deal covers South and Central America, the Caribbean, Russia, and CIS countries. Sales there could add to IST growth.
Supportive ifInnoviva or Dr. Reddy's reports that XACDURO is approved and launched in at least one territory named in the deal.
Worry ifThe companies report no launch in the named territories by the next annual results. Or they disclose that the deal has ended.
Why it matters: Armata made up $457.7 million of Innoviva's strategic investments in Q2. Its fair-value swings can sharply change reported earnings.
Watch forQ3 results show investment values rose overall, led by Armata. Total strategic asset value is above $669.5 million.
Also watch forQ3 results show investment values fell overall, led by Armata. Total strategic asset value is below $669.5 million.
Why it matters: Gross GSK royalties were $59.8 million in Q2, but full-year 2025 royalties were lower than in 2024. A drop could weigh on steady cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 2026 gross GSK royalty revenue is below $59 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 gross GSK royalty revenue is at least $59 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $248 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,063 loss on $10,000 · 20.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.