Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Innovex International, Inc. (INVX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$24.43-4.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.85 → 1.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INVX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow near $14 million in Q1 2026 | The company aims to improve subsea margins and maintain free cash flow around $14 million. | Improving | free cash flow falls below $10 million next quarter | Free cash flow: $32.39M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $14 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 202632,390,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical Energy-sector growth business, with a sector tailwind but weaker recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and awards show progress, while the latest earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum call for caution.
INVX is expensive versus peers, with a 1.05 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The valuation evidence says this premium is broadly justified, rather than reflecting the full combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and sector turbulence.
Near term, the latest quarter missed, and the evidence flags a meaningful risk of weaker guidance at the next call. Across the multi-year view, revenue growth and recent contract awards support management’s profitable-growth priority, while cash generation remains positive but free cash flow is below its reported 2025-Q4 level.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure to the already weak performance picture. The multi-year setup also depends on whether commercial growth translates into durable cash generation, and whether Energy-sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and guidance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, INVX’s thesis rests on turning commercial momentum into stronger financial performance while managing a demanding valuation. The evidence is mixed, so execution and sector conditions remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Revenue is expected near $240 million in Q2 2026. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $230 million in Q2 2026 |
Revenue: $265.054M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$240 million. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 2026265,054,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve subsea business margins | The company aims to improve subsea margins and maintain free cash flow around $14 million. | Improving | subsea margins decline materially below recent levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.94 → $1.86 · observed estimates
$1.14B → $1.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.94 | $1,140,375,723 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.95 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.97 | $1,100,435,830 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.92 | $1,140,375,730 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.94 | $1,154,567,778 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.92 | $1,132,716,570 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.92 | $1,132,716,570 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.92 | $1,132,716,570 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.92 | $1,132,716,570 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.92 | $1,132,716,570 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.85 | $1,145,531,550 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.85 | $1,141,702,816 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.85 | $1,132,635,211 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.85 | $1,132,635,211 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.85 | $1,132,635,217 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.85 | $1,132,635,217 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.85 | $1,132,635,217 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.84 | $1,127,994,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.86 | $1,118,680,072 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.86 | $1,125,176,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.86 | $1,125,176,155 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.