Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.54-1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IONQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful M&A activity supports growth | A supporting condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Completion of planned M&A deals with positive impact in FY26. | Improving | M&A deals fail or do not contribute to growth in FY26 | 2 M&A deals announced (SkyWater, Elisity) vs FY26 completion target IonQ announced acquisitions of SkyWater Technology and Elisity Inc. in 2026, signaling active M&A execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, meaning the business case depends on building a market that is still developing. The thesis is on watch: revenue growth and acquisition execution are strengths, while recent performance, earnings quality, and management consistency remain concerns.
IONQ trades at a 16.68% premium to peers, with valuation driven partly by optionality, or potential from future opportunities. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not fully supported by the evidence, while model confidence is low; the valuation signal is described as justified rather than broadly fragile.
Near-term revenue growth has been very strong, and management remains focused on 100% organic growth in 2026. The SkyWater acquisition closed as planned, but commercial expansion is mixed, and erratic earnings results and consecutive misses make the next report a meaningful execution test.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining growth after the recent surge, expanding global commercial demand, and integrating SkyWater effectively. Near-term, a guidance cut after a recent increase would further weaken credibility; easier rates or stabilization among technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IONQ offers substantial growth potential, but the evidence also points to fragile earnings quality, high risk, and a premium valuation. The thesis depends on continued execution and stronger commercial progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management team stabilizes after recent key departures |
| A supporting condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| Additional key executives leave within next 4 quarters |
0 key departures vs 0 allowed News and filings show acquisitions and capital raises, but no key executive departures. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$271.51M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows vs -$271.51M. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$271.51M over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-337.243M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows vs -$271.51M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-337,243,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue reaches about $270 million | A primary condition in IonQ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$270M. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $260 million in FY26 | Revenue: $80.05M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$270M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202680,050,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.85 → $-1.33 · observed estimates
$0.38B → $0.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.85 | $380,363,152 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.85 | $380,363,152 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.85 | $386,399,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.85 | $386,399,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.85 | $386,399,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.85 | $386,399,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.96 | $386,081,333 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.37 | $388,378,530 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.96 | $386,081,333 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.37 | $388,378,530 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.37 | $388,378,530 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.96 | $383,716,222 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.37 | $388,412,450 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.37 | $393,451,450 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.97 | $392,118,110 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.97 | $407,568,560 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.31 | $399,629,266 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.61 | $391,103,852 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.43 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.43 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.43 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.43 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.43 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.61 | $387,340,215 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.75 | $808,582,987 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.50 | $774,246,991 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.49 | $809,145,658 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.49 | $809,145,658 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.49 | $809,145,658 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.49 | $809,145,658 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.49 | $809,145,658 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.46 | $813,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.46 | $813,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.46 | $812,628,977 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.46 | $812,628,977 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.46 | $812,628,977 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.46 | $812,628,977 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.46 | $812,628,977 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.46 | $812,630,131 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.33 | $806,249,917 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.33 | $806,248,632 | 6 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.