IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.52+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IONQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 40.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IONQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, IonQ, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Why it matters: New partnerships show that more people accept IonQ's technology. This could help it grow.
Supportive ifLook for at least two new commercial partnerships in quantum computing.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Staying within the guidance range shows IonQ's good financial management during growth.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA loss is within the range of ($330) million to ($310) million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds the guidance range.
Why it matters: New contracts can show more demand for IonQ's technology in key areas.
Supportive ifLook for news on new contracts or partnerships with defense groups.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or contracts announced in the defense sector.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the growth phase of the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$395 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $887 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,761 loss on $10,000 · 67.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will test IonQ's ability to maintain strong organic growth after record results.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth was below 100% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 100% year-on-year.
Why it matters: New partnerships could drive revenue growth and expand IonQ's market reach.
Supportive ifA new big commercial partnership or contract is announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships are announced, which may slow down commercial growth.
Why it matters: This call will provide insights into recent performance and future guidance.
Watch forManagement gives good guidance. They show strong performance during the call.
Also watch forManagement gives bad guidance. They show poor performance metrics.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows strong growth momentum. It signals confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises the annual revenue guidance to $270M.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the annual revenue guidance below $270M.
Why it matters: New partnerships can improve IonQ's market position and revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts or partnerships that grow IonQ's customer base.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or contracts announced in the upcoming quarter.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and possible future revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog increases past $470 million.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or fails to grow.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target would confirm the strong growth trend and management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $68 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $65 million.
Why it matters: This growth shows that IonQ can keep growing fast in quantum computing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of at least 100% year-on-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 100% year-on-year.