Innospec, Inc. (IOSP)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$93.95+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IOSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IOSP — director transition
Dated 2026-06-04
Class II director — Shelley Bausch: The Board appointed Shelley Bausch as a new Class II director and to the Audit Committee.
Why it matters: Growth would show recovery from the winter storm's negative effects.
Supportive ifOilfield Services revenue rises by more than 5% from last quarter.
Worry ifOilfield Services revenue declines or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show trends in revenue and margins. This affects investor feelings.
Watch forQ2 earnings show adjusted non-GAAP EPS above $1.05.
Also watch forQ2 earnings show adjusted non-GAAP EPS below $1.05.
Why it matters: Sector performance affects Innospec's growth. Changes can influence how investors feel.
Watch forMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after a year of decline.
Also watch forMaterials sector revenue growth keeps going down.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback program shows strong capital use and trust in the business.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished the $75 million share buyback program.
Worry ifThe company does not complete the buyback program by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,548 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sequential growth in Q2 is key to showing the company's recovery and market strength.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ2 revenue fell below 0% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue trends in oilfield services will show if the business can recover from winter storm impacts.
Watch forIf Q2 2026 oilfield services revenue is more than $102.2 million, it shows recovery.
Also watch forIf Q2 2026 oilfield services revenue is less than $102.2 million, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Dividends and share buybacks show a commitment to shareholders. This can affect how investors feel.
Supportive ifThe company announces a new share buyback or raises the dividend.
Worry ifThe company stops the dividend or cancels planned share buybacks.
Why it matters: Updates on the $75 million share buyback show management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifLook for news on share repurchases in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with buybacks and dividends. This shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $20 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $10 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sequential revenue growth would show that Innospec is recovering from winter storm impacts. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grows more than 3% compared to Q1 2026 revenue of $453.2 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines or grows less than 3% compared to Q1 2026 revenue.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show management trusts the company's health and value.
Supportive ifThe company announces more share buybacks of $10 million or more.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The $75 million buyback shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders. It shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifAt least $10 million of the buyback is executed by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifLess than $5 million of the buyback is executed by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Negative effects could slow growth plans and hurt Oilfield Services performance.
Worry ifOilfield Services revenue shows growth despite Middle East conflict.
Less concerning ifOilfield Services revenue drops due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show trust in the company and return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases more than $6 million in shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement shows the company's financial health. It also means cash for shareholders.
Supportive ifConfirmation of the $0.92 per share dividend payment for the next cycle.
Worry ifThere is no news about the dividend payment this time.
Why it matters: Growth in Performance Chemicals shows the company is making more money. This helps overall earnings.
Supportive ifPerformance Chemicals income grows by over 15% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Fuel Specialties revenue growth helps the company and supports management's growth plans.
Supportive ifFuel Specialties revenue increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved management of working capital. This helps future investments.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow increases to over $15 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains below $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and wants to return cash.
Supportive ifInnospec repurchases more than $6 million in shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.