Innospec, Inc. (IOSP)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$79.13-1.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IOSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IOSP — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-03
Regulation FD Disclosure Dividend Declaration The Company also announced in the Press Release that on November 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.94 per share on the Company’s Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”). The dividend will be paid on November 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of November 17, 2026. The information under this Item 2.02,
Why it matters: Q2 income rose 40% from last year, helped by the DRA plant expansion. A higher Q3 result would show further gains.
Supportive ifQ3 Oilfield Services operating income is above $8.7M, and gross margin stays at or above Q2's 32.3%.
Worry ifQ3 operating income is below $8.7M, or gross margin falls below 32.3%.
Why it matters: The report can test whether gains in all three businesses continued after Q2. It can also show if cash flow rose.
Watch forThe Nov. 3 report shows Q3 operating income above Q2 in Performance Chemicals and Oilfield Services, with operating cash flow above $7.2M.
Also watch forThe Nov. 3 report shows lower operating income in either segment and operating cash flow at or below $7.2M.
Why it matters: Fuel Specialties has been a steady source of income. Q2 income was $36.3M, but its gross margin fell from last year.
Worry ifQ3 Fuel Specialties operating income falls below $35.4M, its Q2 2025 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income stays at or above $36.3M, and gross margin is at or above Q2's 36.6%.
Why it matters: Q2 income rose 15% to $16.4M as plant work continued. A higher Q3 result would show that gains are holding.
Supportive ifQ3 Performance Chemicals income is above $16.4M. Gross margin is at least Q2's 17.3%.
Worry ifQ3 Performance Chemicals income is below $16.4M, or gross margin is below 17.3%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,548 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell from $17.6M in Q1 to $7.2M in Q2. Management tied a second-half rise to better working capital.
Supportive ifQ3 cash from operations is above $7.2M.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operating activities is $7.2M or less.