International Paper (IP)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$36.68-3.27%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.68. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 IP trades at 0.8× p/s, below its 2.0× p/s peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with low confidence: its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead) and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $39–$48. Not investment advice.
$39.00 – $48.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 4% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.83/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $40.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $46.01 | 21.3 | 2.16 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $33.88 | 13.2 | 3.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $26.18 | 25.2 | 1.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $64.52 | 1.4 | 45.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $17.16 | 25.2 | 0.68 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $71.71 | 1.4 | 50.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $12.94 | 25.2 | 0.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $76.84 | 1.4 | 54.51 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.