Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
International Paper (IP)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.24-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.03 → 2.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cost and cash flow management | A primary condition in International Paper's published investment case. The stated target is >= $600 million cash from operations per quarter. | Improving | cash from operating activities falls below $600 million per quarter | Cash from operations: $339M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $600 million cash from operations per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026339,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with a turnaround-like operational thesis, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is still being tested: recent performance remains well below its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.
The valuation model has low confidence, and the valuation measure is modestly above peers, with optionality as the main source of divergence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, while priced-in fragility is low and tagged as justified. Valuation has fallen substantially in the recent change data, but the evidence does not show that this resolves the earnings concerns.
Near-term results remain hard to rely on because earnings have been erratic and recent misses are noted, despite reported earnings beats in July and October. In 2026-Q3, North American Packaging Solutions profit and continuing-operations adjusted EBITDA rose from the prior quarter, alongside improved mill performance. EMEA losses narrowed only modestly, and the business remained loss-making.
Over the next few quarters, execution depends on sustaining better network reliability and making further progress on EMEA separation and cost reductions. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over a 1-3 year view, IP has some evidence of operational improvement, but weak recent performance, continuing EMEA losses, and elevated risk keep the thesis in a watch state. The key test is whether execution improves without a new guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain revenue growth near analyst estimates | A primary condition in International Paper's published investment case. The stated target is >= 3.5% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.4% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 3.5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.4018 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance separation of EMEA packaging business | The company plans to separate its EMEA packaging business. | Improving | no meaningful progress on EMEA packaging separation by FY26 end | Qualitative progress confirmed (bid interest, sale evaluation) vs FY26 target IP evaluates EMEA packaging sale; reported bid interest; Q4 guidance provided as separation work advances. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.81 → $2.65 · observed estimates
$25.91B → $26.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.81 | $25,914,381,964 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.81 | $25,914,381,964 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.80 | $25,791,256,330 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.80 | $25,791,256,330 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.81 | $25,914,381,964 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.86 | $25,837,947,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.88 | $25,965,742,586 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.91 | $25,959,621,570 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.91 | $25,959,621,570 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.94 | $25,783,643,510 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.94 | $25,783,643,510 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.94 | $25,783,643,510 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.94 | $25,783,672,600 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.95 | $25,851,236,811 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.00 | $25,983,336,811 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.00 | $25,983,386,742 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.02 | $25,865,588,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.04 | $25,928,468,530 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.04 | $25,978,416,541 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.04 | $25,978,416,541 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.03 | $26,069,247,683 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.03 | $26,069,247,683 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.04 | $26,146,136,572 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.04 | $26,146,136,572 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.04 | $26,146,136,572 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.04 | $26,146,136,572 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.04 | $26,146,136,572 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.09 | $26,187,225,461 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.09 | $26,187,225,461 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.09 | $26,187,225,461 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.09 | $26,187,225,461 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.09 | $26,187,225,461 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.10 | $26,237,781,016 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.10 | $26,237,781,016 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.10 | $26,237,781,016 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.10 | $26,291,886,147 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.11 | $26,366,246,915 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.11 | $26,366,147,366 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.02 | $26,431,136,122 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.65 | $26,326,603,273 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.65 | $26,326,603,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.65 | $26,326,603,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.65 | $26,326,603,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.65 | $26,326,603,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.65 | $26,326,623,426 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.65 | $26,326,623,426 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.