International Paper (IP)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.24+2.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
IP — officer change
Dated 2026-07-17
Director — Dr. Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ahmet C. Dorduncu: Two directors are retiring and being succeeded by two new independent directors.
Why it matters: Cash flow management is critical for the company. Results will show if they are improving or facing challenges.
Watch forCash from operations is over $700 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $600 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would show improved financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at $526 million or higher in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $526 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show financial health and performance. It may affect how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings per share are much higher than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings per share are lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: News on the split will explain the company's direction and focus.
Watch forManagement will give a detailed update on the EMEA split in the next call.
Also watch forNo big updates or delays are reported about the EMEA split.
Why it matters: This acquisition could create a leader in sustainable packaging. It may boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThe court sanctions the scheme on January 30, 2025, allowing the acquisition to proceed.
Worry ifThe court does not sanction the scheme, delaying or blocking the acquisition.
Why it matters: Management needs to manage costs well. This can help make the company more stable.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows better cash flow from operations than before.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: If it drops below this range, it shows worse profits and execution problems.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is under $780 million. This shows problems in operations.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $830 million. This shows strong operations.
Why it matters: Good cost management can help profits and financial health. Investors want to see results.
Supportive ifManagement shows a big drop in costs or better profits.
Worry ifNo drop in costs or better profits means the efforts are not working.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision could affect costs and the economy, impacting IP.
Watch forFOMC decision causes a positive market reaction. This improves input costs.
Also watch forFOMC decision causes a negative market reaction. This worsens input costs.
Why it matters: Closure of the Red River mill may affect production capacity and revenue. Investors will gauge the impact on earnings.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a decline in revenue due to the mill closures.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows stable or increased revenue despite the mill closures.
Why it matters: A decline would show worse efficiency and financial health.
Worry ifCash from operating activities was less than $500 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operating activities is more than $600 million.
Why it matters: Better EMEA results would show a successful split. It would also show good cost management.
Supportive ifEMEA segment operating loss is less than -$80 million in Q2.
Worry ifEMEA segment operating loss is more than -$80 million.
Why it matters: Changes in the PPI can change input costs, affecting margins and profits.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease, indicating lower input costs.
Also watch forPPI shows an increase, indicating higher input costs.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $426 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,053 loss on $10,000 · 40.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.