International Paper (IP)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.24-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IP — officer change
Dated 2026-10-08
Director — Katherine Collins, Lori J. Ryerkerk, Ahmet C. Dorduncu, Kathryn D. Sullivan: The filing details the appointment of new directors to committees and the planned, orderly retirement of two directors with a transition period, which constitutes routine board succession rather than a sudden executive departure.
Why it matters: Ongoing losses show problems with the separation process and the business's health. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifThe EMEA packaging segment had an operating loss of over -$80 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe EMEA packaging segment's operating loss fell to -$50 million or better in Q3.
Why it matters: The sector has faced a long decline, but recent data hints at a possible change. Positive growth would support that shift.
Watch forMaterials sector three-year revenue growth turns above 0%.
Also watch forMaterials sector three-year revenue growth remains at or below 0%.
Why it matters: Cash flow management is critical for the company. Results will show if they are improving or facing challenges.
Watch forCash from operations is over $700 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $600 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow would show better financial health and good capital management.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $526 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $526 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,053 loss on $10,000 · 40.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show financial health and performance. It may affect how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings per share are much higher than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings per share are lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: News on the split will explain the company's direction and focus.
Watch forManagement will give a detailed update on the EMEA split in the next call.
Also watch forNo big updates or delays are reported about the EMEA split.
Why it matters: The separation is underway, and Q2 included $43 million in pre-tax separation costs. Higher costs could add to the cash burden.
Worry ifA later filing shows PS EMEA separation costs above $43 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifA later filing reports PS EMEA separation costs at or below $43 million for a quarter.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates and the economy. This could affect International Paper's costs and demand.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates or signals future hikes.
Also watch forFOMC maintains current interest rates or signals cuts.
Why it matters: This acquisition could create a leader in sustainable packaging. It may boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThe court sanctions the scheme on January 30, 2025, allowing the acquisition to proceed.
Worry ifThe court does not sanction the scheme, delaying or blocking the acquisition.
Why it matters: Free cash flow fell from $94 million in Q1 to negative $7 million in Q2. A return to positive cash flow would show a rebound.
Watch forQ3 free cash flow is above $0.
Also watch forQ3 free cash flow is $0 or lower.
Why it matters: The planned closure is set to cut Q3 adjusted EBITDA by $85 million. A larger hit would add to pressure on results.
Worry ifThe company reports a Pine Hill closure impact above $85 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe reported Q3 impact is $85 million or less.
Why it matters: Management needs to manage costs well. This can help make the company more stable.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows better cash flow from operations than before.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: The range tests whether stronger results can offset the Pine Hill closure and recent profit declines.
Watch forOn the October 28 earnings release, Q3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $780M.
Also watch forOn October 28, Q3 adjusted EBITDA is below $780M.
Why it matters: Good cost management can help profits and financial health. Investors want to see results.
Supportive ifManagement shows a big drop in costs or better profits.
Worry ifNo drop in costs or better profits means the efforts are not working.
Why it matters: Progress on the split could change focus and improve efficiency.
Watch forManagement gives a clear timeline for the EMEA split.
Also watch forManagement delays or gives no news on the EMEA split.
Why it matters: The PS EMEA loss grew from $51 million in Q1 to $80 million in Q2. A smaller loss would show progress as the unit prepares to separate.
Watch forPS EMEA reports an operating loss below $80 million in Q3.
Also watch forPS EMEA reports an operating loss of $80 million or more in Q3.
Why it matters: Closure of the Red River mill may affect production capacity and revenue. Investors will gauge the impact on earnings.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a decline in revenue due to the mill closures.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows stable or increased revenue despite the mill closures.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could show bigger financial problems. This would make it hard for management to focus on capital.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $526 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported above $600 million in Q3.