Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
IPG Photonics (IPGP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.03-11.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.25 → 2.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IPGP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS around $0.40 next quarter | Profit per share is expected near $0.40 next quarter. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.25 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 0.40 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial technology business with a multi-year thesis tied to continued Industrial Solutions expansion and the Lumibird Medical acquisition. The thesis state is watch: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, and confidence in the assessment has eased to medium.
IPGP is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is elevated, while the priced-in assessment says the valuation looks unjustified; fragility is still rated low because the broader expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions are not all present together.
Near term, the risk of a results miss is assessed as low, but recent earnings surprises have been erratic and peers have missed. Over the multi-year view, Industrial Solutions has shown sustained growth, while the completed Lumibird Medical acquisition is a new growth initiative whose expected benefits still depend on execution.
The key business swing factor is whether the acquisition adds growth and improves margins and earnings as management expects. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; easier interest rates or steadier results from major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis rests on continued Industrial Solutions growth and successful acquisition execution, against an expensive valuation and elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is expected near $0.40 next quarter. |
| Under Pressure |
| Gross margin falls below 37% next quarter |
Gross margin: 40.71% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 38.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202640.714435 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Resolve patent litigation with Trumpf | The company is resolving patent issues with Trumpf. | Recovered | New patent litigation or unresolved disputes persist beyond 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $275M next quarter | Gross margins improve to about 38.5% next quarter. | Broken | Revenue falls below $260M next quarter | Revenue: $287.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$275M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026287,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.14 → $2.30 · observed estimates
$1.21B → $1.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.14 | $1,214,782,094 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.14 | $1,214,782,094 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.14 | $1,214,782,094 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.31 | $1,214,782,130 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.37 | $1,215,837,680 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.29 | $1,235,527,910 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.29 | $1,235,527,910 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.29 | $1,225,786,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.21 | $1,235,491,759 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,204 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.27 | $1,245,056,179 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.25 | $1,240,499,355 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.25 | $1,240,461,875 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.30 | $1,235,739,653 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.