IPG Photonics (IPGP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$78.00+2.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IPGP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 65.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IPGP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed: Exhibit Number Exhibit Description Exhibit 99.1 Press Release issued by IPG Photonics Corporation on May 5 , 2026. Exhibit 99.2 Press Release issued by IPG Photonics Corporation on May 5, 2026. Exhibit 104 Inline XBRL for the cover page of this Current Report on Form 8-K. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this Current Report on Form 8-K to be signed on its b…
Why it matters: Better margins mean good cost control. This shows the company is efficient.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted gross margin is over 40.5%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted gross margin is below 37.5%. This shows cost pressures.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising profit margins shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin reported above 40.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 37.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if IPG can maintain revenue growth amid cost pressures and tariffs.
Watch forQ2 revenue is over $290 million. This shows strong demand and good cost management.
Also watch forQ2 revenue is under $260 million. This suggests weak demand or problems with operations.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This can increase overall profits. It might boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifGross profit margins increase by more than 2% in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit margins decrease or stay flat in the Q2 earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$282 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $664 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,404 loss on $10,000 · 54.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The outcome of this lawsuit could affect IPG's products and sales in Europe.
Worry ifA successful appeal lets AMB lasers keep selling in the affected areas.
Less concerning ifA court ruling leads to an injunction or big damages for IPG, hurting sales.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss could mean bigger problems in how the company runs or market issues.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below what analysts expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings meet or beat what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Emerging growth products are vital for future revenue. A decline could signal challenges in innovation or market demand.
Worry ifEmerging growth products account for more than 53% of total revenue.
Less concerning ifEmerging growth products account for less than 50% of total revenue.
Why it matters: Updates on this lawsuit could affect IPG's focus and finances.
Watch forThe lawsuit is resolved. This lowers uncertainty.
Also watch forThe lawsuit gets worse or leads to a big financial penalty.
Why it matters: A decline might mean rising costs or inefficiencies. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin was below 37.5%. This shows cost pressures.
Less concerning ifGross margin is above 40.5%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Missing this range shows weak demand or problems. This could lower investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $265 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue exceeds $295 million, confirming strong demand.
Why it matters: Growth in Advanced Solutions is key for revenue. It also adds diversity.
Supportive ifAdvanced Solutions revenue is growing each year.
Worry ifAdvanced Solutions revenue is dropping. This shows weakness in the market.
Why it matters: This would show success in growth plans. It would help management increase revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 17% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue results will indicate if IPG can maintain growth amid market pressures.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $260 million, indicating a slowdown in demand.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue exceeds $290 million, showing strong market demand.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth continues and if margins improve. It is key for investor sentiment.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show profit problems. This can affect the stock price.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per diluted share lands below $0.25.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per diluted share are over $0.55.
Why it matters: The appeal outcome could impact IPG's product offerings and sales in Europe.
Worry ifA favorable ruling from the UPC Court of Appeal that clears IPG of infringement.
Less concerning ifThe appeal is denied, leading to potential sales restrictions on AMB lasers.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would expand IPG's medical laser market. It could boost revenue and margins.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q4 2026. This shows planned growth.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this range means weaker demand in Industrial Solutions.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $265 million. This shows demand problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue exceeds $295 million, showing strong demand.
Why it matters: A drop means worse cost management. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 37.5%, signaling cost issues.
Less concerning ifAdjusted gross margin is above 40.5%. This shows good cost control.
Why it matters: Slowing growth could indicate a shift in market demand and impact overall revenue.
Worry ifIndustrial Solutions revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifGrowth remains above 16%, showing strong demand.