Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.28+1.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.38 → 1.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures disciplined within $40-$50 million in 2026 | The company plans disciplined capital spending of $40 to $50 million in 2026. | Intact | Capex exceeds $50 million or falls below $40 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $8.46M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $40M and $50M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20268,460,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IPI is a high-risk, production-focused materials business with a sector tailwind, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but evidence confidence is low and the company remains loss-making.
The evidence classifies IPI as cheap, while its valuation is slightly above peers and expectations appear aligned with the business setup. The priced-in signal is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not show that the valuation removes the risks from losses and guidance changes.
Near term, higher 2026 potash and Trio production guidance and reported operational progress support management’s production priorities. Capital spending guidance has been reduced to about $40 million, while delivery on the expanded repurchase authorization is not yet reported. Recent results are described as holding in the top half of the industry, but the August guidance reduction and loss-making status keep execution risk elevated.
The multi-year thesis depends on production improvements continuing and management delivering on its operating and spending priorities. A guidance increase next quarter could support a recovery in confidence, while further weakness would challenge that case. Near-term sector support also depends on whether bellwethers CF, CTVA, and MOS continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IPI’s case rests on turning production progress and sector support into stronger fundamentals, while managing the risks of losses and prior guidance weakness. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations improved to $23.2 million in early 2026, showing better financial health. |
| Intact |
| Cash from operations falls below $23 million in 2026 |
Cash from operations: $34.365M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23 million cash from operations. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202634,365,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 77% in next 12 months | Intrepid Potash aims to grow revenue sharply by about 77% next year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below ~77% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase authorization increased to $50 million | It also increased its share buyback program to $50 million. | Intact | No execution or reversal of buyback authorization by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.61 → $1.76 · observed estimates
$0.23B → $0.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.61 | $232,031,431 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.61 | $232,031,430 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.61 | $232,031,430 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.61 | $252,687,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.10 | $252,687,621 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.41 | $257,996,362 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.38 | $257,340,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.48 | $259,676,525 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.76 | $264,443,192 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.76 | $264,443,192 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.