Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$31.37+0.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IPI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Credit Agreement On March 30, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into the Successor Agent Agreement and Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”) with the lenders party thereto, Bank of Montreal, as original administrative agent, and BMO Bank N.A., as successor administrative agent, which amended certain terms of the Amended and Restated Credit Agree…
Why it matters: Q2 potash sales fell 14% as demand softened late in the quarter. Another drop could erase gains from higher prices.
Worry ifQ3 potash sales are below 59,000 tons, the Q2 level, and lower year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 potash sales reach at least 69,000 tons, the Q2 2025 level.
Why it matters: Higher output would show that mine and mill work is paying off. It would also support the raised full-year targets.
Supportive ifQ3 results show production on pace for 290,000–300,000 tons of potash and 295,000–305,000 tons of Trio in 2026.
Worry ifQ3 production is below the pace needed to meet either full-year target. Or management cuts either target.
Why it matters: Trio drove most of Q2 gross margin growth. A strong Q3 result would show that its prices and lower costs are holding.
Supportive ifQ3 Trio gross margin is at least $11 million, with cost per ton at or below $205.
Worry ifQ3 Trio gross margin falls below $8.1 million, or cost per ton rises above $235.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $515 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,704 loss on $10,000 · 37.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.