Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.51-0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IPI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Credit Agreement On March 30, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into the Successor Agent Agreement and Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”) with the lenders party thereto, Bank of Montreal, as original administrative agent, and BMO Bank N.A., as successor administrative agent, which amended certain terms of the Amended and Restated Credit Agree…
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good operations and financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was above $30 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $30 million.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending and good management.
Supportive ifManagement says they will spend $40 to $50 million.
Worry ifSpending goes over $50 million or below $40 million.
Why it matters: A big drop in potash sales means weaker demand. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifPotash sales volumes decline more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifPotash sales volumes remain stable or grow year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in the $40-$50 million range shows good capital management.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is within the $40-$50 million range.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $50 million. This may mean they are spending too much.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,288 loss on $10,000 · 32.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show strong performance. It also shows market strength.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share reported above $0.52.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share reported below $0.52.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback shows confidence in the company's future and supports share value.
Supportive ifThe company completes the repurchase of $50 million in shares by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to initiate or complete the repurchase program as planned.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth signals a turnaround for the sector. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for the sector turns positive after being near -2% for three years.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative or continues to decline.
Why it matters: Higher Trio production shows strong demand and good resource management.
Supportive ifTrio production exceeds 295 thousand tons as per the increased guidance.
Worry ifTrio production falls below 295 thousand tons.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks shows that management is confident. It shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company starts share repurchases under the $50 million plan.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are made within the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may mean operational problems or lower profits.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays above $30 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from continuing operations drops below $30 million.