IQVIA (IQV)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$264.88+0.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IQV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IQV — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 27, 2026, IQVIA Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release was posted on the Company’s internet website and is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, Item 2.02, in…
Why it matters: IQVIA raised its full-year outlook after strong quarterly results. Falling short of the low end would break that upward trend.
Worry ifReported 2026 revenue is below $17.35 billion, the low end of the latest guidance.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 revenue is at least $17.35 billion and adjusted diluted EPS is at least $12.90.
Why it matters: IQVIA issued $2 billion in notes due 2034 while carrying $13.8 billion of net debt. Interest costs can limit cash available for other uses.
Worry ifA filing or earnings release shows interest expense rising from a year earlier. Or net debt rises above $13.8 billion.
Less concerning ifReported interest expense does not rise year over year and net debt falls below $13.8 billion.
Why it matters: Bookings add work to the backlog that can later become revenue. A drop below the latest level would weaken the growth signal.
Worry ifQ4 R&D Solutions net new bookings are below $3.2 billion, after Q3 bookings of $3.2 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 bookings reach or exceed $3.2 billion and book-to-bill stays at or above 1.0x.
Why it matters: IQVIA removed inactive trials from its backlog estimate. More cuts could show that the backlog is less firm than reported.
Worry ifA later release reports another backlog cut tied to inactive trials. Or R&D contracted backlog falls below $32.6 billion.
Less concerning ifNo more cuts tied to inactive trials are reported. R&D contracted backlog stays at or above $32.6 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,587 loss on $10,000 · 35.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management has raised its view of R&D demand. Clear targets for bookings and backlog growth would make that plan easier to track.
Watch forAt the Dec. 1 Investor Day, management sets R&D booking or backlog targets, then later reports bookings above $3.2 billion per quarter.
Also watch forManagement gives no clear targets for R&D bookings or backlog. Later quarterly bookings fall below $3.2 billion.
Why it matters: IQVIA counts on backlog turning into sales. Lower conversion would put pressure on its R&D growth outlook.
Worry ifThe next report lowers expected next-12-month R&D backlog sales below $9.4 billion, or below 10% growth.
Less concerning ifThe next report keeps expected conversion at $9.4 billion or more and growth at 10% or more.