Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
IRIDEX Corp (IRIX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.72+2.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.02 → 0.02 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IRIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS improving toward breakeven | Recent EPS beats despite revenue misses show improving execution. | Improving | EPS remains negative beyond FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.00. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 18, 2026-0.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style investment in a healthcare business, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is intact for now, but confidence is medium and the business remains loss-making.
The valuation model points to IRIX as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, progress toward cash flow positive operations is a support: IRIX achieved positive operating cash flow in 2026-Q2 and expects positive cash flow for full-year 2026. However, revenue guidance is unchanged despite slight quarterly revenue declines, expense control is behind plan, and the company reported an earnings miss in August plus a September listing-rule notice.
The next results and guidance matter: a guidance cut would add to the recent earnings-miss concern, while continued progress on cash flow would support the multi-year thesis. The outlook also depends on jobs data and healthcare-sector results, which could either add pressure to cyclical names or sustain sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IRIX’s thesis hinges on turning cash-flow progress into steadier revenue and tighter expense control, while addressing its listing-rule risk. The evidence is mixed and near-term execution risk is high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets $19M-$19.5M operating expenses, aiming to control costs. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating expenses exceed $19.5 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating expenses were $5.3 million in the second quarter of 2026, a decrease of $0.3 million, or 5%, compared to $5.6 million in the second quarter of 2025.” “The Company continues to expect fiscal year 2026 adjusted operating expenses, which exclude depreciation and amortization and stock-based compensation, to be in the range of $19 million to $19.5 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Annual revenue of $51M-$53M in 2026 | A primary condition in IRIDEX Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $51 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $51 million in FY26 | Revenue: $12.566M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $51 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 18, 202612,566,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.02 → $0.02 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.02 | $56,766,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.02 | $55,977,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.