Gartner (IT)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$186.42-4.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Contract Value grows at least 3% YoY FX neutral: rev -0.6% vs 3% target.
Gartner grows free cash flow strongly, up 28.7% in Q1 2026 to $371M. The company repurchased $535M of stock in Q1, showing strong capital return. Contract Value rose 1.0% YoY, supporting growth. Earnings beats and raised guidance back a solid outlook.
AI risks could reduce SaaS spending, threatening Gartner's growth. Contract Value growth is slow at 1.0% YoY. The recent 21.6% share price drop signals market concerns. Revenue declined 1.5% YoY in Q1 2026, showing demand pressure.
The price is about 43% below our fair value near $246, reflecting a cheap valuation. Analysts expect modest 2.5% revenue growth, which aligns with current cautious outlook. Our fair value is well above the Street median, showing upside if growth improves.
Breaks if: contract value growth falls below 1% YoY FX neutral
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $1.3 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent results and ongoing management priorities.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, reflecting a cheap valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for the company's recent strong performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's focus on contract value growth and increasing guidance for key financial metrics. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which is a risk to monitor.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Fed to cut rates, which could benefit IT and other tech stocks. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like IBM and ACN will be crucial for maintaining momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports increased full-year Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow guidance. This positive performance enhances confidence in the company's execution and outlook. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this view.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gartner aims to increase its full-year free cash flow guidance.
Breaks if: annual share repurchases fall below $1.5 billion
Gartner continues to authorize share repurchases to enhance shareholder value.
In the next 1 to 3 years, IT's performance will depend on its ability to execute on management priorities and navigate external economic conditions. Not investment advice.