Gartner (IT)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$186.42-4.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IT — President transition
Dated 2026-01-29
Director — Daniela Rus and Edward Bousa: The Board of Directors appointed Daniela Rus and Edward Bousa to the Board, expanding it to 13 directors.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenues show strong demand. This eases worries about the drop in Q2.
Watch forQ3 revenues show growth or stabilize compared to Q2.
Also watch forQ3 revenues decline more than 0.6% YoY.
Why it matters: Details on share buybacks can signal confidence in the company's value. This may positively impact the stock price.
Supportive ifManagement talks about the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo further details are given on the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Raising free cash flow guidance shows better cash generation. It can improve financial options.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance above $378 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance remains unchanged or is lowered from $378 million.
Why it matters: Contract value growth is key to future revenue and reflects customer demand.
Supportive ifContract value reported above $5.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifContract value reported below $5.3 billion in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,239 loss on $10,000 · 52.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue trends improve or continue to decline. Investors will react to changes in guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 1% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline worse than -1% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if the company can maintain its growth amid sector challenges.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue was $1.5 billion or less. This shows a continued decline.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $1.5 billion, showing recovery or growth.
Why it matters: If Adjusted EBITDA guidance goes up, it shows strong performance and growth confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises its full year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now over $466 million in Q3.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers its Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now below $466 million.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement for more share buybacks. This is beyond the current plan.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Strong contract value growth shows demand for Gartner's services. It confirms management's priority to accelerate growth.
Supportive ifQ3 contract value growth exceeds 1.1% YoY.
Worry ifContract value growth is below 1.1% YoY.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show confidence in the company's worth. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new share buyback of at least $500 million.
Worry ifNo share repurchase activity is announced in Q3.