Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. (IVR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.46-1.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.74 → 1.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IVR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments near $0.36 per share | Analysts expect earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.34 next year | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.36. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IVR is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a cyclical profile, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is still unclear: recent earnings were positive, but the available financial history is not enough to judge whether the improvement is durable.
The valuation evidence describes IVR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain restrained. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup.
Near term, recent earnings beats lifted company momentum, but earnings available for distribution per common share declined from Q2 to Q3 2026. Economic debt-to-equity rose and cash and unencumbered investments fell, despite management’s stated focus on prudent leverage and liquidity. The next report remains worth watching because recent earnings surprises have been erratic and the industry has a high miss rate.
Over the coming quarters, Fed rate cuts from the current 3.88% could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while weakness at sector peers could remove a recent sector tailwind. The multi-year view also depends on whether IVR can stabilize leverage and liquidity while sustaining its earnings and dividend performance.
For the next one to three years, IVR combines cheap peer-relative valuation and recent positive earnings signals with meaningful execution and balance-sheet uncertainty. The evidence supports a cautious, still-unsettled long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.00 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.00. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -19% in next year | A supporting condition in Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline >= -19% YoY. | Intact | Revenue decline worse than -19% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 20.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue decline >= -19% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202620.933394 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Announce and execute share buyback program | A primary condition in Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing buyback announcements and repurchases each quarter. | Intact | No buyback announcements or repurchases for two consecutive quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.02 → $1.66 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.02 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.01 | $200,794,669 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.02 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.97 | $194,810,100 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.97 | $194,810,100 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.02 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.02 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.02 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.97 | $194,810,100 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.91 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.91 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.91 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.83 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.83 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.83 | $218,748,380 | 6 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.86 | $194,872,033 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.74 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.73 | $233,609,615 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.67 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.70 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.70 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.70 | $221,176,282 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $221,176,282 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.66 | $221,176,282 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.