Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. (IVR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.52+3.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -26.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IVR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (the “Company” or “registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 (the “Release”). The Release is attached to this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and the information contained in the Release is incorporated into this
Why it matters: Book value fell 16.1% in Q3 as mortgage spreads widened. A recovery would show the portfolio can handle volatile markets.
Supportive ifQ4 book value per common share rises above $6.74, with economic return above zero.
Worry ifQ4 book value per common share falls below $6.74, or economic return is below zero again.
Why it matters: Recent event records flag buyback announcements, but give no purchase size or completion details. A reported repurchase would confirm that shares were bought back.
Supportive ifAn IVR filing or release reports shares repurchased and the number of shares bought.
Worry ifA later filing or release says no shares were repurchased, or the buyback did not happen.
Why it matters: Management said higher rate volatility and wider Agency RMBS spreads hurt Q3 results. CPI and the next results can show whether that pressure persists.
Watch forAfter the November 10 CPI report, IVR's next update says rate swings eased. Agency RMBS spreads narrowed from Q3 levels.
Also watch forAfter the November 10 CPI report, IVR's next update says rate swings rose or Agency RMBS spreads widened further.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,013 loss on $10,000 · 40.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.