Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. (IVR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.20+1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
IVR — director transition
Dated 2026-08-03
Director — Mr. Peter Graham: Mr. Peter Graham was appointed as a director and to several board committees.
Why it matters: A cut in the dividend may show cash flow problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifMonthly dividend is below $0.30 per share.
Less concerning ifMonthly dividend remains at $0.36 per share or increases.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and its financial health.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations, showing strong performance and growth.
Also watch forEarnings did not meet expectations. This may show problems in operations or the market.
Why it matters: If it drops below $8.00, it may show weaker asset values. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifBook value per common share falls below $8.00 in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifBook value per common share remains at or above $8.00.
Why it matters: The buyback could signal confidence in the company's value and improve earnings per share.
Supportive ifThe stock price went up a lot after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifThe stock price declines or remains flat despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: New buyback announcements may show that management believes in the stock's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new share buyback program in the next month.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements are made in the next month.
Why it matters: Changes in book value show the company's financial health. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forBook value per share increases from $8.08 reported in Q1 2026.
Also watch forBook value per share decreases further from $8.08.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders. It shows cash flow is strong.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the next dividend payment amount and date.
Worry ifNews of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Dividends show that a company is stable. They matter to shareholders.
Watch forDividend remains at $0.12 per share or increases.
Also watch forDividend is cut below $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the stock. They can also help shareholders.
Supportive ifA big share buyback program was announced. It is over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth affects how Invesco does. If it speeds up, it may mean better times for the company.
Watch forIf sector revenue growth speeds up again, it shows stronger demand.
Also watch forIf sector revenue growth slows down or stays the same, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up again, it could help Invesco in a tough market.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the real estate sector shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: This ratio shows how well the company manages its debt. A stable or lower ratio indicates good financial health.
Supportive ifThe debt-to-equity ratio stays at or below 7.5x in the next quarters.
Worry ifThe debt-to-equity ratio goes above 7.5x. This shows more borrowing.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.36 per share for the next month.
Worry ifThe company cuts the monthly dividend below $0.36 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,888 loss on $10,000 · 18.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.