Invivyd Inc (IVVD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.83-1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IVVD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 35.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 105.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IVVD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CEO — Marc Elia: The filing discloses the appointment of the Board Chairman as CEO, an internal succession event rather than a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: The analysis will show if VYD2311 works well enough for FDA approval.
Watch forThe DECLARATION trial shows VYD2311 meets or beats FDA approval standards.
Also watch forThe DECLARATION trial fails to meet the efficacy thresholds set for FDA approval.
Why it matters: The analysis will determine if VYD2311 can move towards FDA approval. This is critical for growth.
Supportive ifThe DECLARATION trial analysis is done. It supports a BLA submission.
Worry ifThe analysis does not support a BLA submission or is delayed.
Why it matters: Top-line data will show how safe and effective VYD2311 is compared to mRNA vaccines. This could affect future sales and regulatory approval.
Supportive ifTop-line data from the LIBERTY trial shows VYD2311 is safe and effective.
Worry ifData shows big safety issues or low effectiveness for VYD2311.
Why it matters: Clear guidance from the FDA could pave the way for PEMGARDA's full approval, impacting its market position.
Supportive ifFDA provides a clear pathway for BLA submission for PEMGARDA.
Worry ifFDA says there are big challenges for PEMGARDA's approval.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$422 on $10,000 · ±4.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $945 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,142 loss on $10,000 · 81.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Top-line data will show how VYD2311 compares to mRNA vaccines. This is key for future sales.
Supportive ifTop-line data from the LIBERTY trial is released in late Q3 2026.
Worry ifData release is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand for Invivyd's products, even with fewer vaccines.
Supportive ifPEMGARDA revenue grows by over 20% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPEMGARDA revenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: VMS063 could help Invivyd offer more options and meet needs in measles care.
Supportive ifVMS063 reaches IND readiness by late 2026 as planned.
Worry ifVMS063 development is delayed. It will not be ready for IND until after late 2026.
Why it matters: Knowing how to move from EUA to full approval is key for steady revenue.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan to move PEMGARDA from EUA to full approval.
Less concerning ifManagement does not provide a clear plan for PEMGARDA's move from EUA.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show a good change for Invivyd.
Supportive ifHealth Care sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it could impact Invivyd's performance. The health care sector is currently in a growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median for the first time in two years.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Improvements in VMS063 could help Invivyd's product range. It may also help with measles prevention.
Supportive ifVMS063 enters IND-enabling studies by late 2026.
Worry ifVMS063 development is slow. It also has major regulatory issues.
Why it matters: FDA guidance will affect the path for VYD2311 and its entry into the market.
Watch forFDA gives good feedback on the BLA submission plan for VYD2311.
Also watch forFDA raises big concerns about the BLA submission plan for VYD2311.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss could signal deeper issues in the business. It may affect investor trust and stock performance.
Worry ifThe company reports another earnings miss in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings meet or exceed expectations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If VYD2311 is ready for kids, it could greatly grow the market and boost revenue.
Supportive ifInvivyd says the pediatric study plan for VYD2311 is approved and ready to start.
Worry ifThere are delays in the pediatric study plan or rules are not met.
Why it matters: The results will determine if VYD2311 can be submitted for regulatory approval. This is crucial for Invivyd's future.
Supportive ifThe DECLARATION trial shows that VYD2311 works well.
Worry ifThe DECLARATION trial fails to meet its primary endpoint.
Why it matters: The FDA talks will affect PEMGARDA's future. They will also shape Invivyd's strategy.
Watch forFDA provides a clear path for PEMGARDA's future use after EUA termination.
Also watch forFDA does not provide a clear path, complicating PEMGARDA's future.