Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
JAGUAR HEALTH INC (JAGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.41-18.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JAGX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Secure and utilize $40M equity line of credit | Jaguar Health aims to secure a $40M equity line of credit to improve finances. | Intact | failure to secure or draw on $40M equity line by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, high-risk development-stage biotech with recent revenue growth from licensing, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence provides no valuation multiple or direct measure of market expectations, so it is not enough to judge whether JAGX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. The available evidence points to expectations around continued licensing revenue and progress toward the crofelemer regulatory milestones, but does not show how much of that is already reflected in valuation.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue rose sharply from a year earlier, largely because of the Future Pak licensing agreement and its upfront payment and ongoing fees. Over the multi-year view, the key operating test is whether JAGX delivers the clinical package by the end of 2026 and supports an NDA submission in Q2 2027. Near-term execution risk remains high, with a 52% estimated chance of a miss and a possible setback if guidance is cut.
The favorable case depends on continued licensing revenue and progress on the crofelemer program’s regulatory milestones. The unfavorable case includes weaker guidance, a weakening jobs trend that raises recession concerns, or stalled development progress. Healthcare-sector momentum is a possible support, but depends on continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on turning licensing-driven revenue growth into sustained execution while advancing crofelemer toward regulatory submission. The thesis remains intact, but losses, fragile earnings quality, and high execution risk leave the outcome uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in JAGUAR HEALTH INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves from -$4.20 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$9 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Address Nasdaq listing compliance issues | Management is working to address Nasdaq compliance. | Under Pressure | failure to address Nasdaq compliance leading to delisting | Qualitative: 1-for-15 reverse split executed Sep 2026; no delisting notice Company executed 1-for-15 reverse split in Sep 2026 to maintain Nasdaq listing compliance. No delisting notice reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue near $20.5M in 2026 and avoid steep declines | A primary condition in JAGUAR HEALTH INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $20M revenue in FY26. | Broken | revenue falls below $14M in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-9.45 → $-102.53 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-9.45 | $14,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-9.45 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-141.75 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-102.53 | $4,114,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.