JAGUAR HEALTH INC (JAGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.60-14.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JAGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JAGX — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on March 4, 2026, Jaguar Health, Inc. (the “Company” or “Jaguar”) paid a special one time dividend of one-tenth of one share of Series O Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Series O Preferred Stock”) for each of the approximately 354,836 shares of voting common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, of the Company (the “Common Stock”) outstanding, plus each share issuable upon exercise of certain warrants to purchase, in aggregate…
Why it matters: Securing this credit line is crucial for funding operations and growth.
Supportive ifA formal announcement confirms the $40M equity line is complete.
Worry ifNo announcement or failure to secure the equity line by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Submitting the NDA is a key step for crofelemer's market entry. It shows progress in development for rare intestinal failure.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the NDA clinical package for MVID is ready by end of 2026.
Worry ifNo NDA submission occurs by Q2 2027 or delays are announced.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows that the licensing strategy with Future Pak is working well.
Supportive ifLicense revenue increases from Future Pak beyond the $16 million upfront payment.
Worry ifLicense revenue is down or flat compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth shows possible problems in the company's licensing plan. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth below 800% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth remains at or above 800% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Maintaining Nasdaq compliance is crucial for stock stability. Non-compliance could lead to delisting risks.
Worry ifManagement says they are still following the Nasdaq listing rules.
Less concerning ifManagement says they did not meet Nasdaq listing rules.
Why it matters: If Jaguar submits a successful NDA, it shows their focus on crofelemer for rare diseases. This could help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifJaguar submits the NDA for crofelemer by mid-2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe NDA submission is delayed beyond mid-2027.
Why it matters: New agreements can boost revenue and support the business model.
Supportive ifThere are more U.S. licensing deals for Mytesi or Canalevia-CA1.
Worry ifNo new licensing agreements announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New agreements can strengthen operations and market position. They are key for growth.
Supportive ifThe company announces new M&A deals or changes that help operations.
Worry ifCompany does not get new deals or has problems with current ones.
Why it matters: Good trial results could prove crofelemer works well and boost future sales. This is key for Jaguar's growth.
Watch forClinical trial results show strong success in helping kids with intestinal failure.
Also watch forClinical trial results show no strong success or bad results.
Why it matters: Submitting the NDA would be a key step in bringing crofelemer to market for MVID. This could drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe clinical package for the NDA for MVID is ready by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe NDA submission is delayed beyond Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Maintaining compliance is vital for Jaguar's stock to remain listed. Non-compliance could lead to delisting.
Worry ifJaguar follows Nasdaq listing rules. There are no new issues.
Less concerning ifJaguar receives a notice of non-compliance from Nasdaq.
Why it matters: Using this credit line can help Jaguar's cash flow. It is key for operations.
Supportive ifJaguar uses the $40M equity line of credit for its operational needs.
Worry ifJaguar does not use the equity line or has trouble accessing it.
Why it matters: Jaguar needs revenue growth from licensing agreements. This is important for their financial health.
Supportive ifRevenue from licensing agreements goes up a lot compared to last quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from licensing agreements goes down or stays the same.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$499 on $10,000 · ±5.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,446 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,911 loss on $10,000 · 99.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.