Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$227.32-3.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
25.90 → 26.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JAZZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations above $400 million | Cash from operations rose sharply to $408 million. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $300 million next year | Cash from operations: $415.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $400 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 3, 2026415,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented pharmaceutical business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. The long-term thesis is intact, but the latest earnings miss and mixed acquisition execution make management delivery an important watch point.
The valuation evidence points to JAZZ being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the overall priced-in signal is tagged justified. The evidence gives medium confidence in that assessment and shows low valuation fragility, but it does not provide enough detail to say exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.
Over the multi-year view, continued revenue growth and pipeline progress are supported by recent execution, including revenue growth and regulatory advances. Near term, the October 26 earnings miss and the industry’s high rate of misses are risks, although the snapshot describes miss risk as quiet. A reversal of recently raised guidance would also weaken confidence in management.
The thesis hinges on management sustaining revenue growth, advancing the pipeline, and maintaining the guidance it recently raised. Near-term sector conditions also matter: continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker jobs data and recession concerns could weigh on healthcare names.
For the 1-3 year view, JAZZ’s growth and pipeline progress keep the long-term thesis intact, but the recent miss makes execution and guidance credibility central swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is ~90% gross margin. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 85% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 90.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~90% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202690.366631 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance pipeline and regulatory activities including zanidatamab launch | A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is Successful zanidatamab launch and regulatory progress in 2026. | Intact | Major pipeline setbacks or launch failures occur in 2026 | Ziihera launch on track with $4.78B-$4.85B 2026 guidance Jazz raised 2026 revenue guidance to $4.775B-$4.85B, confirming Ziihera launch trajectory and pipeline progress. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 6% per year | A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 10.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 2, 202610.380275 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$25.72 → $26.62 · observed estimates
$4.84B → $5.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $25.85 | $4,833,231,596 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $25.85 | $4,833,231,596 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $25.85 | $4,833,226,041 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $25.72 | $4,841,191,020 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $25.95 | $4,927,614,415 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $25.95 | $4,927,614,415 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $25.80 | $4,972,674,640 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $25.80 | $4,972,674,640 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $25.80 | $4,972,674,640 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $25.77 | $4,973,592,360 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $25.92 | $4,980,061,382 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $25.89 | $4,994,025,307 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $25.93 | $4,997,032,919 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $25.93 | $4,997,032,919 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $25.93 | $4,997,032,919 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $25.94 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $25.89 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $25.89 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $25.89 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $25.89 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $25.89 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $25.90 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $25.87 | $4,998,284,666 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $25.87 | $4,998,007,971 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $25.90 | $4,999,726,001 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $25.90 | $4,999,726,001 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $25.90 | $4,999,726,001 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $25.90 | $4,999,726,001 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $25.77 | $4,999,726,001 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $25.77 | $4,999,750,334 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $25.74 | $4,986,530,001 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $25.74 | $4,986,530,001 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $25.74 | $4,986,530,001 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $25.74 | $4,986,530,001 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $25.74 | $4,986,530,001 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $25.74 | $4,986,531,920 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $25.90 | $4,990,950,162 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $25.92 | $4,991,491,631 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $25.93 | $4,992,541,631 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $25.91 | $4,991,591,631 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $25.91 | $4,991,591,631 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $25.82 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $25.82 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $25.82 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $26.04 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $26.04 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $26.04 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $26.04 | $4,985,256,780 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $26.06 | $4,987,645,917 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $26.06 | $4,987,645,917 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $26.06 | $4,987,645,917 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $26.06 | $4,989,624,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $25.94 | $4,986,674,017 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $25.94 | $4,987,085,188 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $25.89 | $4,982,785,188 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $25.97 | $4,982,461,688 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $25.97 | $4,982,461,688 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $25.97 | $4,982,461,688 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $25.97 | $4,982,461,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $26.91 | $5,032,941,234 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $26.62 | $5,033,518,389 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $26.62 | $5,033,518,389 | 10 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.