Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$246.81-0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JAZZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JAZZ — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-31
To the extent that any ordinary shares are issued upon exchange of the Notes, they will be issued in transactions anticipated to be exempt from registration under the Securities Act by virtue of Section 3(a)(9) thereof because no commission or other remuneration is expected to be paid in connection with exchange of the Notes and any resulting issuance of ordinary shares. Initially, a maximum of 5,014,125 ordinary shares may be issued upon exchange of the Notes based on the initial maximum exc…
Why it matters: Xywav is a key revenue driver; changes could signal demand shifts in the sleep disorder market.
Worry ifXywav revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifXywav revenue growth drops below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good results would help zanidatamab treat advanced GEA. This would boost Jazz's cancer drug lineup.
Watch forPositive early results from the HERIZON-GEA-01 trial are out.
Also watch forNegative early results from the HERIZON-GEA-01 trial are out.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows strong results and good work.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for 2026 confirmed at $4.60 - $4.75 billion.
Worry ifGuidance revised down from the current range.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good sales efforts. It also supports higher guidance updates.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,142 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More patients using Xywav shows strong demand. This means good revenue potential in the sleep disorder market.
Supportive ifXywav net patient adds exceed 500 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifXywav net patient adds fall below 400 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps fund R&D and keeps operations stable. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $400 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $300 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans. They can also change how investors feel.
Worry ifA new director or executive will fill the spot left by O'Riordan.
Less concerning ifNo new appointments or big changes in leadership.
Why it matters: Growth in Modeyso sales shows demand for new therapies. It also shows effective marketing.
Supportive ifModeyso sales in Q3 exceed $50 million.
Worry ifModeyso sales in Q3 fall below $40 million.
Why it matters: Results may affect future sales and how people see Modeyso.
Watch forPositive interim results from the Phase 3 ACTION trial in 1H27.
Also watch forBad interim results or delays in reporting.
Why it matters: Approval would let Jazz launch Ziihera. This would improve their oncology products and revenue.
Supportive ifFDA grants approval for Ziihera by the PDUFA date of August 25, 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond the PDUFA date.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and performance. Investors need to understand how this affects Jazz.
Watch forA new director has been announced. They have relevant experience and a strong record.
Also watch forNo new director was named. A director with little experience was picked.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will expand Jazz's pipeline in rare epilepsy. This could strengthen their market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes by the end of Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe deal does not close because of regulatory or other problems.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows Jazz is keeping costs low. This is important for making money long-term.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $300M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was under $200M in Q2.