JBG Smith (JBGS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.70-0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
JBGS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On August 27, 2026, JBG SMITH Properties LP (“JBG SMITH LP”), the operating partnership of JBG SMITH Properties (the “Company”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto as set forth in the Revolving Credit Agreement. The Revolving Credit Agreement provides for a $690.0…
Why it matters: New joint ventures show success in attracting capital. This helps growth and NAV per share.
Supportive ifNew joint ventures for development projects will be shared next quarter.
Worry ifNo new joint ventures announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in inflation can affect JBG Smith's costs and tenant demand.
Watch forCPI shows a decrease in inflation rate on July 14, 2026.
Also watch forCPI shows an increase in inflation rate on July 14, 2026.
Why it matters: Leasing progress will show how well the company attracts tenants with its amenities.
Supportive ifAverage leasing rate for The Grace, Reva, The Zoe, and Valen exceeds 75%.
Worry ifAverage leasing rate for these assets remains below 66.5%.
Why it matters: Achieving full occupancy would enhance cash flow and support NOI growth.
Supportive ifNewly constructed assets reach 100% occupancy within the next six months.
Worry ifOccupancy of new buildings stays below 66.5% in the next six months.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,281 loss on $10,000 · 52.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong leasing activity means high demand. This helps keep occupancy rates up in the office portfolio.
Supportive ifLeasing activity in National Landing exceeds 300,000 square feet in the next quarter.
Worry ifLeasing activity in National Landing falls below 300,000 square feet in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in federal spending can change demand for multifamily and office spaces. This affects revenue.
Watch forFederal spending increases, leading to improved job growth in the DC area.
Also watch forFederal spending cuts can lead to more job losses in the DC area.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is stabilizing its assets. It will also show if income is improving.
Watch forQ2 earnings show annualized NOI above $21.1M.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows annualized NOI below $21.1M.
Why it matters: Successful joint ventures can improve capital use. This helps long-term NAV growth.
Supportive ifNew joint ventures or capital partnerships may be announced in Q3.
Worry ifNo new joint ventures or partnerships announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher FFO per share means better profits. It also shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share exceeds $0.17 in Q2.
Worry ifCore FFO per share falls below $0.17 in Q2.
Why it matters: Increased defense spending could drive demand for office space in National Landing.
Supportive ifFederal budget plans show defense spending up over 5% from last year.
Worry ifFederal budget proposals show a defense spending decrease or no change.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs. It may show a positive change.
Supportive ifOperating income is improving. It changed from -$60.6 million to -$23.0 million.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays below -$23.0 million.
Why it matters: The Fed's choice will affect interest rates and JBG Smith's funding costs.
Watch forThe Fed decides to lower interest rates during the July FOMC meeting.
Also watch forThe Fed decides to raise interest rates during the July FOMC meeting.
Why it matters: Leasing these new assets will help grow annual NOI.
Supportive ifThe Grace, Reva, The Zoe, and Valen reach at least 90% leased.
Worry ifThe Grace, Reva, The Zoe, and Valen remain below 70% leased.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean worse performance in the portfolio. This would hurt NAV growth.
Worry ifSame Store NOI declines more than -4.0% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame Store NOI declines less than or stabilizes around -4.0% for Q3 2026.