JBG Smith (JBGS)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.29+4.86%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JBGS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On August 27, 2026, JBG SMITH Properties LP (“JBG SMITH LP”), the operating partnership of JBG SMITH Properties (the “Company”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto as set forth in the Revolving Credit Agreement. The Revolving Credit Agreement provides for a $690.0…
Why it matters: A large pipeline can lift rent and occupancy as leases begin. The latest report showed stronger office leasing.
Supportive ifManagement reports that National Landing tenants seeking space exceed 300,000 square feet. It later reports signed leases from those tenants.
Worry ifThe pipeline falls below 300,000 square feet, or office leased space drops below 78.0%.
Why it matters: The approved plan would turn older office space into homes. Progress would show that the company can carry out its office conversion plan.
Supportive ifThe company says work has started on both building conversions. Or it reports a construction milestone for both.
Worry ifA later company update says either conversion is delayed or canceled. Or it gives no next step.
Why it matters: These new homes add income as they fill. More income can ease the company’s high debt load.
Supportive ifZoe and Valen are at least 90% leased. Management says occupancy is rising.
Worry ifTheir leased rate falls below 68.9%, or leasing progress stalls in the next report.
Why it matters: Same Store NOI fell 4.0% in Q2. A smaller decline or growth would show that income at existing properties is improving.
Supportive ifSame Store NOI falls less than 4.0% year over year in the next report, or turns positive.
Worry ifSame Store NOI falls 4.0% or more year over year again.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,570 loss on $10,000 · 45.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Signed leases that start paying rent can add income without new deals. That can help lower debt compared with income.
Supportive ifThe company reports that rent of more than $12.7 million a year has started from signed leases. Debt to income falls below 12.4x.
Worry ifDebt to income stays at or above 12.4x, or the company reports no rent starting from signed leases.