J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$273.77+2.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBHT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
JBHT — M&A activity — TERMINATION OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT See the information set forth in
Dated 2025-12-02
TERMINATION OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT See the information set forth in
Why it matters: Cutting costs would help margins and support profits in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement reports a reduction in cost to serve by at least 5% in Q2.
Worry ifManagement indicates no progress or an increase in cost to serve in Q2.
Why it matters: Lower EPS growth may show weaker profits and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQuarterly EPS growth falls below 20% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQuarterly EPS growth exceeds 20% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: The dual listing on Nasdaq Texas could enhance liquidity and attract new investors. Monitoring trading volume will help gauge market reaction.
Supportive ifTrading volume rises a lot after the dual listing on March 6, 2026.
Worry ifTrading volume remains flat or declines after the dual listing.
Why it matters: Progress in this project is key for long-term profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement says there are big improvements in the cost to serve project.
Worry ifNo progress reported on the cost to serve initiative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $285 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,587 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows that cost management is working. It also means operations are running well.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is more than $207 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is less than $207 million.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue per load shows better pricing power and demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue per load in Intermodal improves or stays stable year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue per load in Intermodal declines more than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower EPS growth may show profit problems. This matters for investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 EPS growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 EPS growth above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in Final Mile Services revenue may mean bigger problems. These could be in demand or execution.
Worry ifFinal Mile Services revenue stays the same or increases each year.
Less concerning ifFinal Mile Services revenue declines more than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Cutting costs can help make more money. This is important in a tough market.
Supportive ifOperating income margin goes above 8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 7% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop could mean pricing pressure and hurt overall profits.
Worry ifRevenue per load in Intermodal segment declines more than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue per load in Intermodal segment increases or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: The dual listing could improve liquidity and attract new investors. This may enhance the company's market presence.
Supportive ifSuccessful trading of JBHT on Nasdaq Texas without issues after March 6, 2026.
Worry ifTrading issues or low volume on Nasdaq Texas after the dual listing.
Why it matters: Lower growth in operating income might mean higher costs. It could also show less efficiency.
Worry ifOperating income growth below 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows good financial health. Investors like strong operational performance.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS exceeds $1.49.
Worry ifQ2 EPS is below $1.49.
Why it matters: Intermodal revenue is growing. This shows the company can use its network well. It may mean more demand and better operations.
Supportive ifIntermodal revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifIntermodal revenue growth is below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins from cost-saving efforts can help make more money. This shows the company is operating efficiently.
Supportive ifOperating income margin goes above 8% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 6% in Q3.
Why it matters: The dual listing on Nasdaq Texas may enhance liquidity and attract new investors. This can support stock performance.
Supportive ifTrading volume on Nasdaq Texas goes up after the listing.
Worry ifNo significant change in trading volume after the dual listing.
Why it matters: If Final Mile revenue stabilizes, it may show better demand and changes in operations. This is key for overall revenue.
Watch forFinal Mile Services revenue shows no further decline in Q3 compared to Q2.
Also watch forFinal Mile Services revenue drops more in Q3 than in Q2.