Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Janus International Group, Inc. (JBI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.77-4.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.66 → 0.65 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted EBITDA between $165M and $185M in 2026 | Profit margins remain stable with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $165M to $185M. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $165 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario, as JBI navigates recent challenges while trying to stabilize its financial performance. The current thesis state is cautious, with recent events impacting confidence and performance metrics.
The market currently prices JBI as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that investors may have low expectations for significant growth. However, there is an expectations gap suggesting that the market is not fully factoring in potential risks from recent guidance revisions.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, especially given the recent downward revisions in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. The company's focus on cash flow generation is evident, but recent declines in operating cash flow raise concerns.
The thesis hinges on JBI's ability to reaffirm its revenue and EBITDA guidance in upcoming calls. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL will be crucial, as their results could influence JBI's trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JBI faces a challenging environment that requires careful monitoring of both operational performance and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations rose from $15M to $36.2M in recent quarters. |
| Broken |
| cash from operations declines below $30 million over next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $24.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: increase cash from operations above $36 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 202624,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $940M to $980M | A primary condition in Janus International Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$960 million. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $940 million in FY26 | Revenue: $233.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$960 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026233,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64 → $0.65 · observed estimates
$0.98B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.64 | $984,694,905 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.66 | $955,324,410 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.66 | $955,320,476 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.65 | $951,464,410 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.