Janus International Group, Inc. (JBI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.09+1.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JBI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Janus International Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended April 4, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is available on the investor relations section of the Company’s website at https://ir.janusintl.com. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall…
Why it matters: More installed units show strong demand. This means growth strategies are working well.
Supportive ifInstalled Nokē units reach over 600,000.
Worry ifInstalled Nokē units fail to grow beyond 501,000.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal better times for Janus and its peers.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue and profitability. It is a major event for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth and good Adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue decline and bad Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash flow may show deeper problems. This could hurt liquidity.
Worry ifOperating cash flow declines year over year worse than 20%.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow declines less than 20% YoY or grows.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would raise concerns about management's ability to meet guidance. It could impact investor trust.
Worry ifEarnings report shows results below expectations for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifEarnings report meets or exceeds expectations after the May 12 miss.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA helps us understand profit trends. A drop may show operational issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 stays within the new range of $150 million to $170 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $150 million for Q3.
Why it matters: A big drop in Adjusted EBITDA shows ongoing problems. This could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA down year over year worse than -20%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA declines less than -20% YoY or grows.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good operations and cash flow. It is key for long-term value.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 meets or exceeds $165 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operations is more than $30 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $25 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target would show Janus is on track with its annual revenue goals. It reflects demand stability in self-storage.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 8.6% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If cash flow falls below this level, it may signal deeper financial issues.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is under $20 million. This shows possible financial trouble.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow is above $20 million. This suggests stable cash generation.
Why it matters: Management's guidance shows how they see business performance. A change may mean bigger problems.
Worry ifManagement says full-year 2026 revenue will be between $925 million and $945 million.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts full-year 2026 revenue guidance to less than $925 million.
Why it matters: More installations show demand for new products. This helps long-term revenue growth.
Supportive ifInstalled Nokē units are over 600,000, showing steady growth.
Worry ifInstalled Nokē units fail to grow beyond 501,000 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow shows financial health. A drop could raise worries about cash.
Worry ifOperating cash flow for Q3 remains above $24.4 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow drops below $24.4 million for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,522 loss on $10,000 · 55.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.