Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
JetBlue (JBLU)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.49-1.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JBLU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital expenditures near $800 million in 2026 | A supporting condition in JetBlue's published investment case. The stated target is <= $800 million CAPEX in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $800 million significantly in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $227M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <= $800 million CAPEX in 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 26, 2026227,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround-style airline thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue and unit-revenue growth are improving, but JBLU remains loss-making and recent performance has weakened.
The valuation model describes JBLU as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations despite the recent earnings miss.
Near term, the latest quarter showed operating revenue up 21.1% year over year and RASM, or revenue per available seat mile, growth at 18.4%, but the operating loss widened to $144 million. CASM ex-Fuel, a measure of unit costs excluding fuel, rose 7.0% year over year, and the recent earnings miss lowered company momentum and shifted the signal to cautious. JetForward remains management’s stated path to sustained profitability, but progress on costs and profits is still mixed.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether revenue growth can translate into sustained profits through better cost control. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as DAL, UAL, and RYAAY would support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those airlines could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, JBLU’s thesis depends on turning stronger unit revenue into durable profitability; the latest loss, rising costs, and earnings miss leave that progress unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves from -$224 million loss |
| The company aims to improve operating income from a loss of $224 million in Q1 2026. |
| Improving |
| Operating income remains below -$200 million over next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $-144M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward break-even or better in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 2026-144,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 7-11% in 2026 | A primary condition in JetBlue's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth in 2026-Q2. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in 2026-Q2 | Revenue growth: 21.1% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth in 2026-Q2. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 26, 202621.102498 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.50 → $-1.23 · observed estimates
$10.94B → $11.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.50 | $10,936,103,572 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.50 | $10,936,103,572 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.53 | $10,951,453,310 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.53 | $10,951,453,310 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.50 | $10,936,103,572 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.53 | $10,964,307,160 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.53 | $10,964,307,160 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.41 | $11,093,968,890 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.47 | $11,078,700,737 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.40 | $11,103,944,300 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.40 | $11,103,944,300 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.40 | $11,103,944,300 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.40 | $11,103,944,300 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.40 | $11,103,944,300 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.41 | $11,120,622,110 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.46 | $11,103,927,404 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.45 | $11,151,872,048 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.45 | $11,151,872,048 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.45 | $11,151,872,048 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.45 | $11,151,872,048 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.45 | $11,151,872,048 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.51 | $11,162,992,048 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.53 | $11,164,785,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.55 | $11,173,185,381 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.57 | $11,199,658,175 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.69 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.69 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.69 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.69 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.69 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.70 | $11,222,328,160 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.70 | $11,222,528,160 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.70 | $11,222,528,160 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.73 | $11,208,770,912 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.73 | $11,208,770,912 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.73 | $11,208,770,912 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.81 | $11,218,588,039 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.81 | $11,239,268,039 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.81 | $11,239,268,039 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.81 | $11,239,268,039 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.81 | $11,239,268,039 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.90 | $11,243,113,639 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.90 | $11,243,113,639 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.90 | $11,243,113,639 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.92 | $11,278,132,668 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.92 | $11,278,132,668 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.08 | $11,318,853,606 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.12 | $11,326,687,627 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.13 | $11,326,702,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.13 | $11,326,702,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.13 | $11,326,702,360 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.13 | $11,345,300,089 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.24 | $11,430,153,867 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.22 | $11,461,492,800 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.21 | $11,481,835,236 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.21 | $11,481,835,236 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.21 | $11,481,835,236 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.21 | $11,481,835,236 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.21 | $11,481,835,236 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.23 | $11,501,177,451 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.23 | $11,501,177,451 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.