JetBlue (JBLU)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.63+0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBLU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -79.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
JBLU — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Jesse Lynn: The resignations are a contractual consequence of the Icahn Group's ownership falling below a threshold, not a sudden loss of senior executive management or a dispute.
Why it matters: Cuts over 3% could mean problems with demand or operations. This raises worries about growth.
Worry ifCapacity cuts in H2 2026 are over 3%.
Less concerning ifCapacity cuts in H2 2026 are under 2%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows JetBlue is managing its finances well. It supports growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive for Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative for Q2.
Why it matters: Increasing revenue is vital for JetBlue's recovery. It shows demand strength.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: An improvement shows JetBlue is making progress to earn more money.
Supportive ifOperating income was more than -$224 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains at or worsens from -$224 million in Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$287 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $599 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,762 loss on $10,000 · 37.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in capacity affects revenue. Slow growth may mean less demand or problems.
Worry ifCapacity growth in Q2 is below 1.5%.
Less concerning ifCapacity growth in Q2 is above 4.5%.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects JetBlue's performance. A slowdown could hurt revenue.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 8% or more.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 4%.
Why it matters: Recovering fuel costs is key for profits. Falling below 30% shows rising costs.
Worry ifFuel costs recapture reported below 30% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFuel costs recapture reported at or above 30% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects JetBlue's growth. An improvement may mean better times for airlines.
Watch forSector performance improves to above -0.05 in June.
Also watch forSector performance drops more below -0.12 in June.
Why it matters: RASM growth is key for JetBlue's revenue. A drop below this level could signal demand weakness.
Worry ifQ3 RASM growth reported below 12.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 RASM growth reported above 12.5% year over year.
Why it matters: JetForward is important for making money. Lower EBIT shows problems with plans.
Worry ifJetForward projects make less than $310 million EBIT.
Less concerning ifJetForward projects make more than $310 million EBIT.
Why it matters: Lower fuel prices cut operating costs. This helps JetBlue reach its money goals.
Supportive ifAverage fuel price per gallon reported below $3.49.
Worry ifAverage fuel price per gallon reported above $4.00.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key management goal. It shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income improves year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income declines year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: Better margins are important for JetBlue's profits. This shows they manage costs well.
Supportive ifOperating margin goes up by at least 3.5 points year-over-year in H2 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin goes up by less than 3.5 points year-over-year in H2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs can hurt profitability. Monitoring this helps gauge cost pressures on JetBlue.
Worry ifAverage fuel price exceeds $3.49 per gallon in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAverage fuel price remains at or below $3.49 per gallon in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This target is key for JetBlue's profits. Hitting it shows they are executing well.
Supportive ifJetForward plans make at least $850 million in extra EBIT by the end of 2027.
Worry ifJetForward plans make less than $850 million in extra EBIT by the end of 2027.