JetBlue (JBLU)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.49-1.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBLU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JBLU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 26, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included under
Why it matters: BlueFirst is a new premium product that may add revenue. Its first flights and later route rollout will test the launch plan.
Supportive ifBlueFirst service begins on Dec. 8 between Boston and Fort Lauderdale, with more routes added in phases.
Worry ifJetBlue delays the Dec. 8 start or cancels the first routes.
Why it matters: JetBlue expects a sharp step-down in unit-cost growth. Lower costs can help margins even with high fuel prices.
Supportive ifQ4 CASM ex-fuel rises no more than 1% year over year, within the guided range of -1% to 1%.
Worry ifQ4 CASM ex-fuel rises more than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: JetBlue is adding flights in Fort Lauderdale while reporting strong local revenue. Seat share will show if that growth holds.
Supportive ifJetBlue reports Q4 Fort Lauderdale seat share near or above 37%, with peak daily departures above 150.
Worry ifQ4 seat share is below 37%, or peak daily departures do not exceed 150.
Why it matters: RASM rose 18.4% in Q3, and management said strong revenue carried into Q4. A miss would weaken that trend.
Supportive ifQ4 RASM grows 18% to 22% year over year, in line with company guidance.
Worry ifQ4 RASM growth falls below 18% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $658 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,331 loss on $10,000 · 63.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.