John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.43-1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain strong EPS growth: EPS $0.71 vs $1.53 target.
John B. Sanfilippo grows earnings steadily with an 8% revenue rise last quarter. Profit per share beat estimates by 23%. The company keeps a stable dividend and trades cheap with a PE of 15.5. Free cash flow yield is solid at 5%.
Revenue growth is slowing to about 1% next year. Dividend per share has fallen from $1.5 to $1.0, showing weak capital return. Analyst earnings estimates have been cut recently, signaling risk to profit growth.
The stock price is about 36% above our fair value near $65. Analysts expect only about 1% revenue growth next year, which is lower than recent growth rates. Our view is more cautious on near-term growth but aligned on longer-term potential.
Breaks if: Dividend per share remains below $1.0 by end of 2026
Sustain and grow cash dividends including special dividends to return capital to shareholders.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and dividend increases. The current thesis is in a watch state due to mixed recent performance and a recent earnings miss.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about JBSS's near-term performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, suggesting that there may be room for improvement if fundamentals strengthen.
Management has emphasized strong earnings per share (EPS) growth and has successfully increased dividends, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns. However, the recent earnings miss and mixed results in commercial ingredients could pose risks to maintaining this trajectory.
Key factors include the company's ability to maintain or improve guidance in upcoming calls, the impact of inflation on the Consumer Staples sector, and performance from sector leaders like KHC, GIS, and MKC that could influence JBSS's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss significantly impacted the outlook for JBSS. This miss indicates a failure to maintain strong earnings growth, which is a primary pillar of the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q2 and special dividend announcements in 2026-Q1 and mid-2026. The company increased its annual dividend by 5.6% to $0.95 and declared special dividends of $1.50 and $1.05 per share in fiscal 2026. This reflects consistent capital return and dividend growth, delivering on stated commitments.
“Annual dividend declared increased by 5.6% to $0.95 per share.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.53 next quarter
Continue to grow diluted earnings per share through strategic pricing, cost management, and operational efficiencies.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $3.12 in 2025-Q4 (six months) to $5.26 in 2026-Q3 (full year), with quarterly EPS growth including a 32% increase in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized EPS growth through pricing, cost management, and efficiencies, and the financial results show delivering trajectory.
“Diluted EPS decreased 16.9% to $1.43 per share but full year EPS increased 4.6% to $5.26.”
“We achieved an approximately 32% increase in diluted earnings per share for the quarter.”
“Diluted EPS increased 17.6%, or $0.68 per diluted share, to $4.55 for the nine months.”
“Diluted EPS increased 44.4%, or $0.96 per diluted share, to $3.12 for the six months.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year
Continue to grow diluted earnings per share through strategic pricing, cost management, and operational efficiencies.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $3.12 in 2025-Q4 (six months) to $5.26 in 2026-Q3 (full year), with quarterly EPS growth including a 32% increase in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized EPS growth through pricing, cost management, and efficiencies, and the financial results show delivering trajectory.
“Diluted EPS decreased 16.9% to $1.43 per share but full year EPS increased 4.6% to $5.26.”
“We achieved an approximately 32% increase in diluted earnings per share for the quarter.”
“Diluted EPS increased 17.6%, or $0.68 per diluted share, to $4.55 for the nine months.”
“Diluted EPS increased 44.4%, or $0.96 per diluted share, to $3.12 for the six months.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JBSS's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and deliver on management's growth priorities. Not investment advice.