Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-25 · fmp
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$54.52-0.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.41 → 5.41 EPS · FY ending Jun 25, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JBSS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase dividend per share | Profit per share beat estimates by 23%. | Intact | Dividend per share remains below $1.0 by end of 2026 | Dividend per share: $2.00 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $1.5 by end of 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20262 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-25 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JBSS is a consumer staples business with a multi-year view tied to profitable growth and cost control. Its earnings quality is robust and the sector backdrop is supportive, but recent performance is mixed and risk has risen. The thesis is intact, though the latest signals call for caution.
JBSS is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to extreme market expectations. Cheap valuation alone does not resolve the execution concerns.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 42% drop in company momentum raise the risk of continued pressure on results. Revenue rose sequentially, but year-over-year volume was flat, gross profit fell, and operating expenses increased as a share of sales. Management has delivered specific dividend distributions, while evidence of profitable growth and efficiency progress remains mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and further weakening in jobs data could add pressure through recession concerns. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as KHC, GIS, and SJM would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether management can turn its growth and efficiency priorities into stronger results.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, supported by robust earnings quality, a tailwind from the sector, and a valuation described as cheap versus peers. Near-term execution risk is elevated, and the thesis depends on improving profitable growth and cost control. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.53 next quarter. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.53 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $1.11 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.53 next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20261.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near recent levels | A primary condition in John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 6% YoY next 4 quarters. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 6% YoY next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.95 → $5.41 · observed estimates
$1.26B → $1.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $5.95 | $1,256,016,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.41 | $1,237,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.41 | $1,211,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.