John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$54.52-0.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JBSS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”. On October 28, 2026, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 via Business Wire (the “Original Release”) and furnished the press release in a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Form 8-K Release”). The Form 8-K R…
Why it matters: Gross margin fell as pricing pressure, higher factory costs, and a weaker product mix cut profit. A recovery would show these pressures are easing.
Supportive ifGross margin rises above 17.0% in a later reported quarter.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 17.0%, or falls further, as costs and pricing pressure continue.
Why it matters: Management sees room to grow protein-forward bars, but mainstream bars were soft. Sales data can test whether the new offer gains traction.
Watch forA later company update reports rising bar volume. It names growth from the new better-for-you bar offer.
Also watch forA later company update reports another drop in bar volume. It cites weak mainstream sales or smaller pack sizes.
Why it matters: Consumer volume fell as private brand sales and snack categories weakened. A return to growth would show that new business is offsetting lost sales.
Supportive ifConsumer channel volume grows year over year in a reported quarter. It fell 6.7% in fiscal Q1 2027.
Worry ifConsumer channel volume falls year over year again. Private brand sales keep declining.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,195 loss on $10,000 · 41.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.