John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.43-1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JBSS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”. On August 19, 2026, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter and fifty-two weeks ended June 25, 2026. This press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or improving revenue growth would signal a recovery in demand. This is important for JBSS as it operates in a mature sector with slow growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Sales volume growth signals recovery from previous declines. It shows demand strength.
Supportive ifSales volume increases year over year in Q1 2027 by more than 2%.
Worry ifSales volume continues to decline year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth is a key priority for the company. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 EPS growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The special dividend shows the company is doing well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe special dividend of $1.05 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,006 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in sales could show problems with consumer demand and pricing.
Worry ifSales volume declines more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSales volume remains stable or grows year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: An earnings miss shows ongoing problems with managing costs and sales volume.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $1.43 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS exceeds $1.43 per share.
Why it matters: A big fall in EPS growth may show less profit and more operational issues.
Worry ifDiluted EPS growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More dividend increases show strong cash flow and a promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnual dividend declared goes up by more than 5% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAnnual dividend declared stays the same or goes down in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin could mean rising costs or pricing issues hurting profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin for Q3 falls below 19%.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin for Q3 remains above 19%.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit JBSS's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 7% each year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in commodity costs can affect pricing and profit.
Watch forA big drop in commodity costs helps gross profit margins.
Also watch forAn increase in commodity costs hurts gross profit margins.
Why it matters: Raising dividends shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is news of another increase in the annual dividend per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the annual dividend per share.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the company's strategy and focus.
Watch forNew CEO Jasper B. Sanfilippo Jr. announces new strategic initiatives by Q4 2026.
Also watch forNo new strategic initiatives announced by the new CEO by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: When a company announces dividends, it shows it is doing well. It also gives money back to investors.
Supportive ifThe company is raising the annual dividend per share to more than $0.95.
Worry ifNo increase in the annual dividend per share in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial ingredients shows new customers are coming in and demand is high.
Supportive ifSales volume in commercial ingredients increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifSales volume in commercial ingredients goes down or stays the same each year.
Why it matters: Growth in contract manufacturing is important for JBSS's plan and sales.
Supportive ifContract manufacturing sales volume goes up by more than 10% each year.
Worry ifContract manufacturing sales volume goes down or grows less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company controls costs well. This shows they are efficient.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 18% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 15% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how well the company is doing financially.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifDiluted EPS growth is less than 0% year over year in Q1 2027.