Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
JD.COM INC (JD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.73+3.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
28.05 → 27.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Shift to automation in delivery operations | JD.com is improving automation, aiming to cut delivery costs by retraining couriers for robots. | Intact | Automation rollout stalls or fails to reduce delivery costs | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JD is a consumer-discretionary business with moderate risk, in a neutral sector backdrop. Its current long-term thesis is insufficiently established because the recent financial-performance record in this snapshot is too limited to assess.
The valuation label recently changed to fair, and the valuation model has high confidence. The evidence does not say what specific growth or earnings expectations are already reflected, and no fragility gates fired.
The snapshot offers little evidence on management execution or the multi-year fundamental trajectory. Near term, the stated miss probability is low, but recent earnings surprises have been erratic and the company has missed across recent quarters; materially slower GDP growth could add pressure.
A favorable scenario depends on sector bellwethers AMZN, BABA, and PDD continuing to beat earnings and guide higher. If they miss or guide lower, that sector support could fade; materially slower GDP growth, especially below 2% versus the stated 2.1%, is another risk.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is unresolved: the valuation is labeled fair, but the evidence on JD’s fundamental direction is thin and recent earnings execution has been uneven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in JD.COM INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.38 trillion yuan revenue in FY26. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below 1.3 trillion yuan in FY26 |
Revenue: CNY 345.423B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.38 trillion yuan revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026345,423,125,000 CNY · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Earnings per share growth | Analysts expect earnings per share around $22 for 2026 and $29 for 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $20 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: CNY 5.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22.23 USD per share EPS in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20265.02 CNY/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory scrutiny in China and UK | A primary condition in JD.COM INC's published investment case. The stated target is No major regulatory penalties or restrictions by end 2026. | Improving | Significant regulatory penalties or operational restrictions imposed | Qualitative: Ceconomy approval secured; $500k SEC fine is immaterial JD cleared to buy Ceconomy; paid minor $500k SEC fine; no major operational restrictions reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$28.72 → $27.23 · observed estimates
$1454.20B → $1428.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $28.72 | $1,454,204,499,717 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $28.72 | $1,454,204,499,717 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $28.67 | $1,449,805,604,669 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $28.67 | $1,449,805,604,669 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $28.67 | $1,449,805,604,669 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $28.72 | $1,452,460,746,182 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $28.77 | $1,447,858,373,540 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-07-31 | $28.79 | $1,447,255,019,310 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-08-01 | $28.72 | $1,452,460,746,182 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-02 | $28.79 | $1,447,255,019,310 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-08-03 | $28.78 | $1,454,141,575,099 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-04 | $28.78 | $1,454,141,575,099 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-05 | $28.79 | $1,447,255,019,310 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-08-06 | $28.78 | $1,454,141,575,099 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-07 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-08 | $28.79 | $1,447,255,019,310 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-08-09 | $28.66 | $1,447,082,136,050 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-10 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-12 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-13 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-14 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-15 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-16 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-08-19 | $28.87 | $1,454,927,969,515 | 16 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $28.44 | $1,446,229,594,454 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $28.51 | $1,449,353,622,199 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $28.39 | $1,448,512,994,467 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $28.39 | $1,448,512,994,467 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $28.39 | $1,448,512,994,467 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $28.41 | $1,449,487,455,165 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $28.41 | $1,449,780,015,349 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-27 | $28.41 | $1,449,780,015,349 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-28 | $28.41 | $1,449,780,015,349 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-29 | $28.11 | $1,449,180,519,765 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-30 | $28.11 | $1,449,180,519,765 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-08-31 | $28.11 | $1,449,180,519,765 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-09-01 | $28.07 | $1,447,035,896,367 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-09-02 | $28.07 | $1,447,035,896,367 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-09-03 | $28.11 | $1,449,278,002,647 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-09-04 | $28.10 | $1,448,954,586,401 | 15 / 27 |
| 2026-09-05 | $28.10 | $1,448,954,586,024 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $28.10 | $1,448,954,586,024 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $28.10 | $1,448,954,586,024 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $28.32 | $1,449,932,390,368 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $28.32 | $1,450,127,142,872 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $28.32 | $1,450,127,142,872 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $28.41 | $1,451,079,318,167 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $28.43 | $1,452,345,785,514 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $28.43 | $1,452,345,785,514 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $28.43 | $1,452,345,785,514 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $28.41 | $1,451,176,738,732 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $28.40 | $1,450,981,897,601 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $28.39 | $1,450,397,374,210 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $28.43 | $1,452,345,785,514 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $28.41 | $1,450,437,728,003 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-20 | $28.41 | $1,450,437,728,003 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $28.03 | $1,430,650,678,648 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $28.08 | $1,433,596,231,709 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $28.11 | $1,434,726,041,633 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | $28.11 | $1,434,870,935,150 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-25 | $28.03 | $1,430,935,281,680 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-26 | $28.06 | $1,432,460,475,740 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $28.06 | $1,432,460,475,740 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-28 | $28.09 | $1,434,036,927,339 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-29 | $28.06 | $1,432,306,738,689 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-09-30 | $28.10 | $1,434,319,045,649 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-01 | $28.10 | $1,434,342,219,505 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $28.06 | $1,432,183,809,271 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $28.06 | $1,432,159,245,617 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $28.06 | $1,432,159,245,617 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $28.05 | $1,432,153,549,698 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $28.05 | $1,432,153,549,698 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $28.09 | $1,433,884,481,269 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $28.08 | $1,433,595,992,674 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $28.08 | $1,433,307,504,079 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $28.08 | $1,433,211,341,214 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $28.08 | $1,433,211,341,214 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-12 | $28.07 | $1,433,003,286,591 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-13 | $28.03 | $1,434,353,230,023 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-14 | $27.69 | $1,430,079,224,483 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-15 | $27.65 | $1,428,152,764,160 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $27.44 | $1,424,611,373,831 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $27.44 | $1,424,611,373,831 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $27.14 | $1,423,438,981,049 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $27.14 | $1,423,438,981,049 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $27.14 | $1,423,146,192,836 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $26.96 | $1,422,633,935,610 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $26.94 | $1,423,685,994,030 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $26.95 | $1,424,161,570,591 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $27.00 | $1,423,685,994,030 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $27.00 | $1,423,685,994,030 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $27.18 | $1,423,685,994,030 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $27.18 | $1,423,685,994,030 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $27.23 | $1,426,539,453,398 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $27.23 | $1,426,539,453,398 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-30 | $27.20 | $1,425,211,726,696 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-10-31 | $27.23 | $1,426,923,007,537 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-11-01 | $27.23 | $1,426,923,007,537 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-11-02 | $27.23 | $1,426,923,007,537 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-11-03 | $27.26 | $1,428,444,146,062 | 15 / 26 |
| 2026-11-04 | $27.23 | $1,428,709,965,915 | 15 / 26 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.