JD.COM INC (JD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.26+1.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: If the sector does better, JD.com could gain. It works in a sector that is shrinking.
Supportive ifThe Consumer Discretionary sector is doing well. It is better than other sectors for the next 30 days.
Worry ifThe Consumer Discretionary sector is not doing well. It is worse than other sectors.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a turnaround in the declining sector. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers are spending. This affects JD's performance.
Watch forRetail sales increase more than 1% month over month, signaling strong consumer demand.
Also watch forRetail sales decrease more than 1% month over month, signaling weak consumer demand.
Why it matters: The CPI affects consumer spending and inflation, key for JD's revenue outlook.
Watch forCPI is up over 3% from last year. This shows inflation is rising.
Also watch forCPI is down below 2% from last year. This shows inflation is falling.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,978 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The FOMC's interest rate decision can influence consumer spending and JD's growth.
Watch forFOMC raises rates. This shows a stronger economy and may lead to more spending.
Also watch forFOMC cuts rates. This shows a weak economy and may lead to less spending.