Jefferies (JEF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.23+1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JEF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
JEF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-15
Other Events. On July 15, 2026, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (the “Company”) consummated the previously announced public offering (the “Offering”) of €850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.500% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The Notes were registered under the Company’s Shelf Registration Statement on Form S-3, as amended (File No. 333-295759) and were issued pursuant to the Company’s Indenture (the “Indenture”), dated as of October 18, 2013, between the Company and The Bank of…
Why it matters: Higher interest costs from new debt could hurt net earnings and profits.
Worry ifInterest costs stay stable or drop even with new debt.
Less concerning ifInterest costs rise sharply after the recent debt issuance.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Jefferies' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 12% in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 12% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Closing this deal could help asset management make more money. It may improve overall performance.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Hildene completes as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or problems that go beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Increasing net income is important for Jefferies' success. It helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income declines or remains flat compared to the previous quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $457 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,802 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Jefferies' exposure to First Brands could impact their financials. Clarity on this matter will help assess risk.
Watch forJefferies gives an update showing small losses from First Brands.
Also watch forJefferies says First Brands lost more money than expected. This raises concerns.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement plans to repurchase at least 2 million shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy can show management's confidence. This relates to future earnings and cash flow.
Watch forManagement maintains the dividend at $0.40 per share.
Also watch forManagement lowers the dividend to below $0.40 per share.
Why it matters: Growth in asset management fees shows recovery. This comes after past declines and better fund performance.
Supportive ifAsset management fees were over $220 million. This shows recovery and growth.
Worry ifAsset management fees fell compared to last year. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Hitting or exceeding earnings goals would help rebuild trust after the recent miss.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $1.00.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share fall below $0.80.
Why it matters: Net income results will show if Jefferies can maintain growth momentum after a strong Q1. It reflects the health of their core operations.
Watch forQ2 net income is over $160 million. This shows continued growth.
Also watch forQ2 net income falls below $150 million, suggesting a slowdown.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows Jefferies is making more money. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income increases year over year by more than 10% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifNet income growth is flat or declines in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: New repurchase news would show confidence in the company's finances. It would also show value for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announced new share repurchase plans. This is beyond the current $250 million plan.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase news, showing a possible change in capital strategy.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help support the share price.
Supportive ifJefferies repurchases at least $50 million worth of shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New debt terms can change Jefferies' costs and financial options.
Watch forNew debt with a yield below 5% shows good market conditions.
Also watch forNew debt with a yield above 6% shows higher borrowing costs.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces the dividend remains at $0.4 per share in the next earnings report.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.4 per share.
Why it matters: Growth in Investment Banking shows Jefferies is strong in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 Investment Banking net revenues increase year over year by more than 50%.
Worry ifQ3 Investment Banking net revenues grow less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable revenues in Asset Management would show a bounce back from recent drops.
Supportive ifQ3 Asset Management revenues increase year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 Asset Management revenues decline year over year by more than 20%.