Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
J Jill, Inc. (JILL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.04-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.49 → 2.48 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JILL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026 | The company aims for adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below 70 million USD in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JILL is a small-cap consumer discretionary business with a value-oriented setup, not a proven steady compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the next results remain an important test.
The evidence describes JILL as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear below the model’s view. The valuation is tagged as justified, and no fragility warning is active, but confidence in that assessment is medium.
Recent performance is strong: Q2 2026 net sales rose 0.5% year over year, gross margin improved, and adjusted EBITDA increased from the prior-year quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is slightly behind last year, while management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 goal; the new product and customer priorities have limited delivery history. Near-term earnings risk is elevated, with erratic surprises and a meaningful chance of a guidance cut to watch.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining the earnings trajectory and turning its new product and customer priorities into results. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JILL’s thesis rests on translating recent strength into consistent execution, while managing elevated near-term earnings risk. Its peer-relative cheapness is a support, but the evidence is not strong enough to treat delivery as settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is steady at about $25 million. |
| Intact |
| capex falls below 20 million USD or exceeds 25 million USD in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $2.233M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20 to 25 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20262,233,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share | J.Jill keeps paying and slightly raising its dividend to $0.09 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.09 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.09 USD per share per quarter. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or improve revenue growth from recent declines | A primary condition in J Jill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth remains below 0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.45 → $2.48 · observed estimates
$0.60B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.45 | $603,591,680 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.46 | $620,758,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.49 | $622,538,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.49 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.49 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.49 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.48 | $622,536,480 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.