J Jill, Inc. (JILL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.98+3.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JILL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
JILL — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-02
Other Events. On September 2, 2026, the Board of Directors of J.Jill, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share on the Company’s common stock (the “Dividend”). The Dividend is payable on October 7, 2026 to stockholders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of September 23, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the Dividend has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects retail sales. Positive trends can boost revenue.
Watch forRetail sales growth reported positive for the next quarter.
Also watch forRetail sales growth reported negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows if J.Jill is handling inventory well during falling sales.
Worry ifInventory purchases for H2 are down in the mid-single digit range.
Less concerning ifInventory purchases go up or stay the same compared to fiscal 2025.
Why it matters: The company aims for adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M. Meeting this target shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 meets or exceeds $75M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $70M.
Why it matters: This decline would confirm ongoing sales challenges and affect future growth outlook.
Worry ifQ2 net sales decline by 1% to 3% compared to fiscal 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales remain flat or grow compared to fiscal 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,098 loss on $10,000 · 41.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This metric shows how much customers want the product and the business's health.
Worry ifComparable sales fell by 2% to 4% compared to fiscal 2025.
Less concerning ifComparable sales stayed the same or grew compared to fiscal 2025.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows a change in the weak consumer discretionary sector. This may help investor feelings.
Supportive ifRevenue growth was above 0% in the next quarters.
Worry ifRevenue growth is still negative in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Capex plans signal investment in growth. Meeting this target shows commitment.
Supportive ifCapex reported at $25 million or more for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapex was below $20 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Too much inventory growth may mean overproduction or weak sales, which affects cash flow.
Worry ifInventory growth was above 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifInventory growth was below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA is a key measure of profitability. It shows how well the company is managing costs and growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is less than $18 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is more than $20 million.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management wants to give money back to shareholders. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.09 per share on October 7, 2026.
Worry ifThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Comparable sales indicate how well the company is performing against prior periods. It shows customer demand and brand strength.
Watch forComparable sales for Q3 show a decline of less than 2% year over year.
Also watch forComparable sales for Q3 show a decline of more than 4% year over year.