J Jill, Inc. (JILL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.04-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JILL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
JILL — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-02
Other Events. On September 2, 2026, the Board of Directors of J.Jill, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share on the Company’s common stock (the “Dividend”). The Dividend is payable on October 7, 2026 to stockholders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of September 23, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the Dividend has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 68.3% without tariff refunds. A further drop could show that costs are pressuring the core business.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 68.3%, without any tariff refund benefit.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is at least 68.3%, excluding any tariff refund benefit.
Why it matters: Q2 comparable sales rose 0.5% after falling 8.7% in Q1. Another gain would show the sales trend is improving.
Supportive ifOn December 9, Q3 comparable sales are above 0% year over year.
Worry ifOn December 9, Q3 comparable sales fall below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Management set a Q2 target of $18 million to $20 million. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $32.8 million with tariff refunds, but $20.1 million without them.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $18 million, the low end of the prior Q2 target.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $18 million.
Why it matters: The sector data points to shrinking revenue, though recent signals hint at a turn. J.Jill's Q2 sales rose 0.5%, making its next sales report a clear test.
Watch forJ.Jill reports Q3 net sales growth above 0% year over year.
Also watch forJ.Jill reports Q3 net sales below prior-year levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $397 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,785 loss on $10,000 · 37.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.