Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$165.64-1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JKHY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JKHY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-24
Director — Richard N. Preece: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to fill a vacancy created by a routine retirement, which is a standard board composition change rather than a loss of senior executive management.
Why it matters: David Foss is retiring. This is a big change in leadership. It may affect company plans and stability.
Watch forMatt Flanigan will lead the Board as Chair after Foss retires on July 15, 2026.
Also watch forA change in leaders may create instability. This can lead to uncertainty in company plans.
Why it matters: Weak revenue growth in Q4 could indicate a slowdown in business momentum. It would challenge the positive outlook management has provided.
Worry ifQ4 non-GAAP revenue growth prints below 7.3%.
Less concerning ifQ4 non-GAAP revenue growth exceeds 7.3%.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would reflect strong sales momentum and growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement raises full year revenue guidance to more than $2,533 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers full year revenue guidance to under $2,521 million.
Why it matters: EPS growth signals financial health. A decline could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ4 GAAP EPS grows above $1.71 per diluted share.
Less concerning ifQ4 GAAP EPS falls below $1.71 per diluted share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,569 loss on $10,000 · 35.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating margin results will show if the company can stay profitable with rising costs. This is important for long-term financial health.
Worry ifOperating margin for Q1 2027 falls below 24.0%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin for Q1 2027 stays above 24.5%.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks show confidence in the company. It can support share price.
Supportive ifJack Henry repurchases at least 1 million shares in Q4.
Worry ifNo shares are bought back in Q4, even with the new approval.
Why it matters: More stock buybacks can show management believes in the company's value and future growth.
Supportive ifStock repurchases in Q1 FY2027 exceed $150 million.
Worry ifStock repurchases in Q1 FY2027 fall below $100 million.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth guidance shows strong demand and good execution in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q4 revenue growth will be over 8% during the earnings call.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth guidance drops below 8%, which may show weak demand.
Why it matters: Raising EPS guidance shows stronger profit expectations. This could help stock performance.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in full year EPS guidance during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers full year EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth and boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises full year GAAP EPS guidance above $6.87.
Worry ifManagement lowers full year GAAP EPS guidance below $6.78.
Why it matters: More deconversion revenue may mean more clients are leaving. This can hurt growth.
Worry ifQ4 deconversion revenue over $10 million shows more clients are lost.
Less concerning ifQ4 deconversion revenue under $10 million means clients are staying.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance show management's confidence in future sales. This shows the company's strength in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement raises its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027. It is now over $2,709 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027. It is now below $2,684 million.
Why it matters: Deconversion revenue trends show how well the company keeps clients. A rise could mean trouble in keeping contracts.
Worry ifDeconversion revenue for Q1 2027 is over $10 million.
Less concerning ifDeconversion revenue for Q1 2027 is below $8 million.
Why it matters: Changes to the stock buyback program show management's confidence in the company's value. This can affect how investors feel.
Supportive ifManagement announces a rise in the stock buyback plan.
Worry ifManagement does not raise the stock buyback plan.