Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
St. Joe Company (JOE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.80-0.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.08 → 0.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JOE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchase authority of at least $150.8 million in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in St. Joe Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=$150.8 million repurchase authority. | Intact | Repurchase authority falls below $100 million or is not used | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JOE is a real estate and hospitality growth business, with a thesis tied to expanding revenue, profitability, and residential communities. The 1 to 3 year thesis remains intact, but its recent signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after the latest earnings release.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main reason for the gap. The evidence does not fully explain that premium, and model confidence is low. Overall, the priced-in fragility assessment is low.
Over the first nine months of 2026, revenue rose to $414.1 million from $384.4 million, while operating income increased to $134.5 million from $106.8 million. Real estate revenue and homes under contract also increased, although completed home sales were lower. Near term, earnings delivery remains a watch point given the history of consecutive misses, despite the assessment of low miss risk.
A rate-cutting cycle could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove a recent sector tailwind. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative. The multi-year case also depends on continued growth in revenue and profitability, residential communities, and measured capital deployment.
For the next 1 to 3 years, JOE’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but weaker recent momentum and an expensive peer valuation leave execution and earnings delivery central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It pays steady dividends of $0.16 per share quarterly. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.16 quarterly |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating cash flow at least $42 million per quarter | Operating cash flow improved to $42.2 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Operating cash flow falls below $35 million per quarter | Cash from operations: $57.677M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$42 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202657,677,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 38% next 12 months | A primary condition in St. Joe Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=38% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 30% next 12 months | Revenue growth: -3.04% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=38% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026-3.036455 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.08 → $0.08 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.08 | $91,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.