St. Joe Company (JOE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.80-0.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JOE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 76.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -78.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 155.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JOE — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-28
OTHER EVENTS. Dividend On October 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share on its common stock, payable on December 11, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 12, 2026.
Why it matters: The center is planned to reach at least 500,000 square feet. More open space can add rental income as nearby communities grow.
Supportive ifThe company reports that the 69,134 square feet under construction is open and leased. Or it reports new space under construction.
Worry ifConstruction stalls, or a later results release shows no new leasing progress.
Why it matters: The board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.16 to $0.18. Payment on December 11 will test whether the increase takes effect as stated.
Supportive ifSt. Joe pays $0.18 per share on December 11, 2026, to holders of record on November 12.
Worry ifSt. Joe delays, cancels, or pays less than $0.18 per share for the declared December dividend.
Why it matters: Contracts rose, but completed sales fell year over year. More closings would help lift income from this joint venture.
Watch forQuarterly completed home sales rise above 82, the Q3 2025 level, while new contracts stay at or above 106.
Also watch forQuarterly completed sales stay below 82 and new contracts fall below 106.
Why it matters: The planned community adds homes to the sales pipeline. It can also bring more shoppers to Watersound West Bay Center.
Supportive ifSt. Joe or PulteGroup confirms that site work starts in early 2027 on the planned 3,000-home community.
Worry ifThe start moves beyond early 2027, or the company reports that work has not begun by mid-2027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $251 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,799 loss on $10,000 · 18.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.