St. Joe Company (JOE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.11+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JOE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 60.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -74.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 134.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JOE — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
OTHER EVENTS. Dividend On July 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.16 per share on its common stock, payable on September 18, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 21, 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows the company is stable. It cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.16 per share is made on September 18, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is canceled or cut.
Why it matters: New flights can boost tourism and hospitality revenue, which is vital for growth.
Supportive ifHospitality revenue goes up by more than 10% in Q2 2026 from Q1 2026.
Worry ifHospitality revenue goes up by 10% or less in Q2 2026 from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth signals the company's ability to expand its business. A strong growth rate can attract more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases by more than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than or equal to 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in hospitality revenue shows strong tourism. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 hospitality revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 hospitality revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New developments show the company is growing and using land well.
Supportive ifNew homes will be built in the Teachee and Pigeon Creek areas.
Worry ifNo new developments are announced by early 2027.
Why it matters: Growing cash flow helps the company grow and return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up year over year, reaching more than $42.2 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow decreases or fails to grow compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: More homesites under contract shows strong demand. This means growth in residential real estate.
Supportive ifMore than 3,500 new homesites are under contract.
Worry ifFewer than 3,204 new homesites are under contract.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income may show problems with revenue or costs.
Worry ifNet income shows a decline less than 21% compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income falls more than 21%. This shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: Income from joint ventures helps overall profits. Changes can show how projects are doing.
Watch forEquity income from joint ventures goes up from $3.5 million in Q1 2026.
Also watch forEquity income from joint ventures goes down from $3.5 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in the company's value and future growth.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $150.8 million.
Worry ifNo new news on share buybacks or plans.
Why it matters: More homesites under contract can show strong demand. This may lead to more money later.
Supportive ifHomesites under contract increase by more than 10% from 3,204 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifHomesites under contract decrease or stay the same compared to 3,204 in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Fewer homesites under contract may show lower demand in residential real estate. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifHomesites under contract are less than 3,204.
Less concerning ifHomesites under contract are more than 3,204.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues or slows. This is key for investors.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, revenue is over $100 million. This shows continued growth.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue falls below $95 million, suggesting a slowdown.
Why it matters: More capital spending shows investment in growth. It also points to future projects.
Supportive ifCapital spending is over $30 million. This shows a commitment to growth.
Worry ifCapital spending is under $20 million. This shows less investment.
Why it matters: Slowing growth in real estate revenue could signal a change in demand or market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 real estate revenue growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 real estate revenue growth remains above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks are over $50 million in 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks are below $37.7 million in 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,799 loss on $10,000 · 18.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.