Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$0.14 → $0.14 · observed estimates
Coffee Holding Co Inc (JVA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.820.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
maintain stable capital structure despite recent loan amendment | A supporting condition in Coffee Holding Co Inc's published investment case. The stated target is no material increase in financial obligations. | Intact | company incurs significant new debt or financial distress | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$0.14 → $0.14 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JVA is a small-cap coffee business with a turnaround-like profile: recent profitability has improved sharply, while revenue remains under pressure. The long-term thesis is intact and the signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though overall risk is high.
The evidence describes JVA as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low, but those measures do not remove the risk of earnings volatility.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and an elevated estimated chance of another miss make results and guidance important risks. Over the multi-year view, margin progress is encouraging: gross margin and operating income improved, and management says new business could support growth, though revenue declined year over year.
The thesis depends on margin gains lasting and new business helping address revenue pressure. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, JVA has a more promising profitability trend but a less certain growth path, with near-term earnings risk still elevated. The thesis hinges on sustaining margins and turning new business into revenue growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Margins could improve in retail and wholesale segments. |
| Improving |
| gross margins do not improve over next 4 quarters |
Gross margin: 25.01% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross margin expansion from current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Sep 11, 202625.01183 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross profit as a percentage of net sales was 25.0% for the three months ended July 31, 2026, compared to 9.4% for the three months ended July 31, 2025.” “Overall, with the continued volatility in the green coffee market showing no clear signs of abating, and the major leading national brands showing no indication of price decreases, as well as significant new business that we have recently secured, we believe we are well positioned moving through the end of calendar 2026 into calendar 2027 to grow our revenue levels, gross margins and our profitability,” concluded Mr. Andrew Gordon, Chief Executive Officer of the Company.” Gross profit was $5.424 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
achieve at least 10% revenue growth next year | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 15% next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Revenue growth: -9.3% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 11, 2026-9.302401 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $0.14 | $90,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.14 | $90,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.14 | $90,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.14 | $90,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.