Coffee Holding Co Inc (JVA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.820.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JVA — officer change
Dated 2026-08-31
CEO — Andrew Gordon: The filing discloses a compensation amendment restoring the CEO's salary and eliminating a bonus, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in personnel or management status.
Why it matters: Refunds added about $0.06 per share in Q3. More refunds could support earnings, while smaller refunds remove that boost.
Supportive ifThe next two quarterly reports show more tariff refunds and related earnings gains.
Worry ifThe next two quarterly reports show no further tariff refunds or gains from them.
Why it matters: Management planned to cut extra inventory after coffee prices fell. Lower inventory would show progress on that plan; a rise would point the other way.
Watch forReported inventory is below $19.5 million. It was $19.5 million on July 31, 2026.
Also watch forReported inventory is above $20.4 million. It was $20.4 million on October 31, 2025.
Why it matters: Management said it secured substantial new business, but Q3 sales fell 9.3% year over year. Higher sales would show the new work is coming through.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows net sales above $23.9 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows net sales at or below $21.7 million, the Q3 2026 level.
Why it matters: The Board approved a program, but the company can pause it at any time. Reported purchases would show the plan is in use.
Supportive ifA company filing reports how many shares were bought back under the program and the amount.
Worry ifThe company reports no purchases in its next quarterly filing, or ends the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,435 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin reached 25.0%, helped by lower-cost inventory, refunds, and trading gains. A lower margin would test how much of that gain can last.
Watch forQ4 gross margin is 25% or higher, with a positive gross profit.
Also watch forQ4 gross margin falls below 15.8%, the Q2 2026 level.