Coffee Holding Co Inc (JVA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.470.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
JVA — officer change
Dated 2026-08-31
CEO — Andrew Gordon: The filing discloses a compensation amendment restoring the CEO's salary and eliminating a bonus, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in personnel or management status.
Why it matters: A larger drop in sales would show ongoing struggles with pricing and demand. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decrease more than 5% compared to Q3 last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than 5% or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Good inventory management can boost cash flow and cut costs during price drops.
Supportive ifManagement says they cut inventory levels by 10% or more.
Worry ifInventory levels stay the same or go up in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Increased revenue would show that tariffs and market conditions are positively impacting sales. This is crucial for future growth.
Supportive ifRevenue goes up a lot in the next earnings report. This shows tariff benefits.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline or shows no growth in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Stabilizing prices could improve sales and margins for Coffee Holding.
Supportive ifGreen coffee prices stabilize or increase in August 2026.
Worry ifGreen coffee prices continue to decline in August 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,596 loss on $10,000 · 46.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins show better cost control. They also show pricing power despite market challenges.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 15% in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: A rebound could help with pricing and sales. This may increase profits.
Supportive ifIndicators of a rebound in green coffee prices or demand in the market.
Worry ifContinued decline in green coffee prices or weak demand signals.
Why it matters: Changes in green coffee prices will affect sales and profits for Coffee Holding.
Watch forGreen coffee prices rebound by more than 10% after September.
Also watch forGreen coffee prices continue to decline by more than 10% after September.
Why it matters: Improving gross margins is key for Coffee Holding's growth strategy. It shows how well the company manages costs and pricing.
Supportive ifGross margins in retail and wholesale improve by more than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifGross margins in retail and wholesale decline or stay flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings from Second Empire can boost overall profits. This is important for Coffee Holding's financial health.
Supportive ifSecond Empire reports earnings that help overall profits.
Worry ifSecond Empire reports losses or no help to overall profits.
Why it matters: New business could help margins. It may also ease current pricing issues in the coffee market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts or partnerships for Cafe Caribe.
Worry ifNo new business announcements or contracts for Cafe Caribe.
Why it matters: Re-accelerating revenue growth can signal a positive shift in the consumer staples sector. It may help Coffee Holding's performance.
Watch forCoffee Holding's revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth stays below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: New contracts could boost margins and offset declines in green coffee prices.
Supportive ifNew business contracts are announced. They help improve profit margins.
Worry ifNo new business contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If margins drop below this level, costs may rise. This could lead to less profit.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 15% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin stays above 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins mean better cost control and pricing power in a tough market.
Supportive ifGross margins exceed 16% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross margins remain below 15% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Winning new business would help offset the impact of lower coffee prices and improve margins.
Supportive ifLook for new contracts or business partnerships announced next quarter.
Worry ifNo new business wins announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in inventory shows good management of extra stock as prices fall.
Supportive ifInventory levels decrease by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifInventory levels increase or stay flat in the next quarter.