Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Jackson Financial, Inc. (JXN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-05
$132.73-3.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
31.70 → 31.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JXN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital return of $900M to $1.1B to shareholders in 2026 | It plans to return $900 million to $1.1 billion to shareholders. | Intact | Capital return falls below $900 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 For the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures, please see the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures in the Appendix to this release.” “$7.68 Non - GAAP earnings per share, ex.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector business with a cash-generation and capital-return thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or durable-growth story. The thesis is still uncertain: recent evidence is limited, earnings quality is marked loss-making, and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says JXN is cheap versus peers, while another shows a premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The valuation score rose recently, but the model has low confidence; the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a clearly stretched or unusually fragile expectations setup.
Near term, reported cash flow and capital returns support management’s stated priorities, while PPM America’s assets under management have grown. However, full-year cash flow remains a target, and the earnings picture is uncertain as industry miss risk and falling earnings surprises are noted; a guidance cut is a stated risk. CEO and director transitions add context, but the evidence does not show their effects.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on whether JXN reaches its 2026 cash-flow and capital-return goals and continues growing PPM America. A guidance cut or falling interest rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support it.
For a 1-to-3-year view, JXN has evidence of operating progress, but uneven earnings quality, volatile management, and conflicting valuation signals leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free Cash Flow at or above $1.2 billion in 2026 | Jackson aims for $1.2 billion free cash flow in 2026. | Intact | Free Cash Flow falls below $1.2 billion in 2026 | Free cash flow: $1.849B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1200000000 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 3, 20261,849,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted operating return on equity attributable to common shareholders 4 for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, was 17.3%, up from 14.0% in the comparable period in the prior year.” “3) Excludes certain internal exchanges.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
PPM America assets under management grow to $93.7 billion by 2025-Q4 | PPM America’s assets grew 26% last year. | Intact | PPM America AUM falls below $93.7 billion by 2025-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$28.02 → $31.76 · observed estimates
$8.36B → $8.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $28.03 | $8,188,472,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $28.03 | $8,188,472,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $28.02 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $28.03 | $8,188,472,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $28.36 | $8,361,000,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.81 | $8,683,200,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.17 | $8,469,972,709 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $31.70 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $31.79 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $32.08 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $32.08 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $32.08 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $31.95 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $31.95 | $8,631,100,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $31.63 | $8,567,643,400 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $31.63 | $8,567,650,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $31.76 | $8,567,643,423 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $31.76 | $8,567,643,423 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.