Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$103.54-6.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.58 → 10.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KALU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.77 per share | The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.77 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.77 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.77 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with a potentially improving multi-year setup, supported by a Materials sector tailwind and strong recent financial performance. The thesis is on watch: management has delivered on some priorities, but execution has been uneven and company momentum has weakened.
The evidence describes KALU as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the valuation model. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, the recent earnings miss, consecutive misses, and an 18.6-point drop in company momentum are risks, even though the stated miss probability is low. For the multi-year thesis, conversion revenue rose to $439 million from $351 million year over year, and leverage fell to 2.0x from 3.4x; however, planned outages and execution challenges have limited progress in earnings.
A key risk is whether KALU reverses its recently raised guidance, which would weaken management credibility as well as the outlook. The sector backdrop also matters: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from AA and CENX would support the tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining conversion revenue growth, executing capacity investments, and continuing to reduce leverage despite near-term earnings and management risks. The valuation appears cheap versus peers, but recent momentum and execution remain important watch points. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved from $38M to $97.8M, showing better profits. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $80M next quarter |
Operating income: $55.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $98M next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202655,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 13% annually | A primary condition in Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 43.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202643.983402 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.55 → $10.93 · observed estimates
$4.35B → $4.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.55 | $4,348,799,210 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.80 | $4,345,049,210 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.80 | $4,345,049,210 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.80 | $4,345,049,211 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.80 | $4,345,049,210 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.29 | $4,453,085,870 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.29 | $4,453,100,712 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.58 | $4,428,244,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.58 | $4,785,994,631 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.58 | $4,786,044,581 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.58 | $4,777,814,485 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.63 | $4,777,814,485 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.37 | $4,786,514,535 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.42 | $4,786,514,535 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.42 | $4,786,514,535 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.42 | $4,786,514,535 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.42 | $4,786,514,535 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.93 | $4,667,542,938 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.