Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.74-6.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KALU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KALU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
The information in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein…
Why it matters: Leverage fell from 3.4x at year-end 2025 to 2.0x in Q3. Keeping it low would support the balance-sheet gains.
Supportive ifThe next report shows net debt leverage at or below 2.0x.
Worry ifThe next report shows net debt leverage above 2.0x.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year goal at 10% to 15% growth. Q3 conversion revenue rose 25% year over year.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 conversion revenue is at least 10% above 2025.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 conversion revenue growth falls below 10%.
Why it matters: Q3 margins faced roll-coat start-up costs, lower scrap use, and a planned Bellwood outage. Better output could lift earnings.
Supportive ifA later report shows more Packaging output. It also shows a smaller margin hit from roll-coat start-up costs and plant issues than Q3's 640 basis points.
Worry ifA later report cites ongoing roll-coat costs or plant issues, with a margin hit of 640 basis points or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $506 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,609 loss on $10,000 · 46.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.