Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
$164.19+2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KALU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
KALU — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CEO — Fred Stephan: The filing announces the planned succession of an external hire (Fred Stephan) to replace the current CEO as part of a structured transition, rather than an unexpected departure.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good performance and efficiency. It helps the company's growth story.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $63 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 falls below $63 million.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows the company is doing well. It also shows management cares about returns.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend of $0.77 or higher was announced.
Worry ifA dividend lower than $0.77 was announced.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows the company is strong. It also helps shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend payout that meets or exceeds the previous level.
Worry ifA dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Why it matters: The call will give updates on performance and what management thinks.
Watch forThe earnings call had positive comments about revenue growth and market conditions.
Also watch forThe earnings call had negative comments about revenue growth or market conditions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $446 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,603 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paying the dividend shows management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment is made as scheduled on August 14, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or delayed.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio means better financial health. It helps keep dividends steady.
Supportive ifNet debt leverage ratio improves to below 2.8x.
Worry ifNet debt leverage ratio increases above 2.8x.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and a promise to give value to shareholders. It shows management's trust.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.77 per share for the next declaration.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is reduced from $0.77 per share.
Why it matters: Improved aerospace demand can boost revenue and profitability for Kaiser. It is a critical end market for them.
Supportive ifAerospace demand shows growth in orders or production.
Worry ifAerospace demand shows a drop in orders or production.
Why it matters: A drop in the EBITDA margin shows possible cost issues or less pricing power.
Worry ifThe Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin was less than 35%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35% or more.
Why it matters: When aluminum prices stabilize, it affects profits and margins. This can influence future earnings and growth.
Worry ifAluminum prices are steady and do not change much.
Less concerning ifAluminum prices keep rising quickly or dropping a lot.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the materials sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported at greater than 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below -2% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.77 per share.
Worry ifThe company keeps or lowers the quarterly dividend at $0.77 per share.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in a mature phase. Signs of growth could impact KALU's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up to above 2% in June 2026.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 1% in June 2026.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA shows strong performance and good cost control. It helps the growth story.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $129 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $129 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. This shows good efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is higher than last year's.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is lower than last year's.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing and market trends.
Watch forThe earnings report shows net income growth over 20% compared to last year.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in net income compared to last year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in Conversion Revenue growth could signal weakening demand or pricing pressure. This would impact the company's outlook.
Worry ifQ3 Conversion Revenue growth is less than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Conversion Revenue growth is more than 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may mean higher costs or lower profits. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $80 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported above $90 million.
Why it matters: This report may change aluminum prices and demand. It could affect Kaiser Aluminum's results.
Watch forThe Producer Price Index shows prices for aluminum products are going up.
Also watch forThe Producer Price Index shows prices for aluminum products are going down.
Why it matters: The earnings call will give details on management's view and trends in performance.
Watch forManagement has a positive outlook for Q4 and the future.
Also watch forManagement issues a cautious outlook for Q4 and beyond.