Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
KB Home (KBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.06-2.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.74 → 3.56 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KBH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Continue active stock repurchases | The company actively repurchases stock, buying $75 million in Q2 2026. | Intact | Stock repurchases drop below $50 million in Q3 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KBH is a cyclical homebuilder, so its results depend in part on housing demand and conditions across the sector. The long-term thesis is intact after recent performance held in the top half of its industry, but execution quality remains fragile.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its recent valuation measure fell. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized without a broader expensive, weak, and turbulent setup.
Near-term results show revenue improving sequentially and deliveries recovering from their first-quarter level, but deliveries remain below year-ago levels. SG&A costs as a share of housing revenue are higher than a year earlier, limiting operating leverage; the next guidance update is an important risk despite a recent earnings beat.
The multi-year view depends on KBH sustaining delivery and revenue progress while improving relative cost control. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers DHI, PHM, and LEN would support the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, KBH has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and strong recent performance, but the thesis still depends on better cost leverage and steady execution amid a cyclical sector. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in KB Home's published investment case. The stated target is ~16.3% gross margin in Q3 2026. |
| Improving |
| gross margin falls below 15.0% next quarter |
Gross margin: 16.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~16.3% gross margin in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 8, 202616.846105 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain and grow home deliveries and revenues | KB Home aims to grow home deliveries to 2,800 in Q3 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.20 billion in Q3 2026 | Revenue: $1.297B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 billion revenue in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 8, 20261,297,101,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce SG&A expenses to 11.9% of revenue | A supporting condition in KB Home's published investment case. The stated target is <= 11.9% SG&A as % of revenue in Q3 2026. | Intact | SG&A remains above 12.5% of revenue next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.61 → $3.56 · observed estimates
$5.53B → $5.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.61 | $5,533,758,280 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.52 | $5,537,343,493 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.52 | $5,537,392,503 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.50 | $5,538,247,803 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.44 | $5,490,367,143 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.44 | $5,490,367,143 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.44 | $5,490,367,143 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.46 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.46 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.46 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.46 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.46 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.43 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.43 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.43 | $5,507,718,133 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.43 | $5,507,685,933 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.42 | $5,486,738,180 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.42 | $5,486,738,180 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.88 | $5,240,475,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.88 | $5,240,475,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.78 | $5,201,375,109 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.74 | $5,176,508,261 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.74 | $5,176,508,261 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.74 | $5,176,508,261 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.74 | $5,176,508,261 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.69 | $5,144,780,988 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.67 | $5,154,190,906 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.67 | $5,154,215,122 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.61 | $5,148,923,456 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.61 | $5,148,923,456 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.61 | $5,142,698,574 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.61 | $5,142,698,574 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.61 | $5,142,698,574 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.61 | $5,142,698,574 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.61 | $5,142,698,574 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.59 | $5,127,929,344 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.56 | $5,118,322,944 | 13 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.