KB Home (KBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.25-0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
KBH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-06-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 23, 2026 , KB Home issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three months and six months ended May 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Why it matters: An increase in net orders would signal growing demand and support revenue recovery for KB Home.
Supportive ifNet orders are over 3,317 homes. This shows a positive trend in demand.
Worry ifNet orders are below 3,317 homes. This confirms continued demand weakness.
Why it matters: A big drop in net orders shows weaker demand in housing. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifNet orders reported down more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet orders reported flat or increasing year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Falling deliveries would show weak demand. This could hurt revenue for 2026.
Worry ifDeliveries were below 2,250 homes in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDeliveries meet or exceed 2,450 homes for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net orders will show how strong demand is and how well KB Home's plan works.
Watch forNet orders grow year over year in Q3.
Also watch forNet orders decline year over year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $340 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,319 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and how investors feel. It is important to watch this.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong background in homebuilding.
Also watch forThere is no news or bad news about the CFO change.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan will show how KB Home will handle financial challenges and growth.
Watch forA press release talks about the new CFO's plans for the company.
Also watch forThere is no announcement or unclear statements about the financial plans from the new CFO.
Why it matters: This range will show if KB Home can control costs as it grows revenues.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses reported between 11.3% and 11.9% of revenues.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed 11.9% of revenues.
Why it matters: This margin is important for understanding how much money KB Home makes with rising costs.
Supportive ifQ3 housing gross profit margin reported between 16.0% and 16.6%.
Worry ifHousing gross profit margin falls below 16.0%.
Why it matters: Falling revenues would show KB Home is struggling to meet its annual guidance. This could signal deeper issues in the housing market.
Worry ifQ2 housing revenues were less than $1.05 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 housing revenues were more than $1.15 billion.
Why it matters: A lower community count could limit future sales and impact revenue growth.
Worry ifEnding community count was less than 265.
Less concerning ifEnding community count was more than 275.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A expenses compared to revenues show better cost control. This is important for keeping profits.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses are below 12.4% of revenues. This shows improved cost management.
Worry ifSG&A expenses are above 12.4% of revenues. This indicates worsening cost control.
Why it matters: This range shows if KB Home can bounce back from recent drops in deliveries.
Supportive ifQ3 home deliveries reported within the range of 2,600 to 2,800 homes.
Worry ifHome deliveries fall below 2,600 homes.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially healthy. It shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces no change to the dividend per share in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend per share in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The CFO change could impact financial plans. It may also affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement keeps or raises financial guidance after the CFO change.
Also watch forManagement cuts financial guidance after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows the company can keep growing. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance will stay the same in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance for 2026 during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy. This affects how the company manages costs and growth.
Watch forThe new CFO shares a clear plan. This plan helps keep or improve financial results.
Also watch forThe new CFO does not share a clear plan. This causes financial problems.