KB Home (KBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.06-2.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
KBH — officer change
Dated 2026-10-14
The filing discloses the approval of long-term incentive awards (PSUs) for named executive officers, which is a compensation matter rather than a change in management or officer roles.
Why it matters: Backlog rose 2% year over year in Q3, its first rise in four years. More orders can help support later deliveries.
Supportive ifQ4 net orders exceed 2,604 homes, the Q3 total.
Worry ifQ4 net orders are below 2,604 homes, and backlog falls below 4,398 homes.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year ranges despite a weaker market. The next report will show whether delivery, revenue, and margin targets held.
Watch forOn December 17, KB Home reports full-year deliveries of 10,500 to 11,000 and housing revenue of $4.90B to $5.10B, with margin of 16.0% to 16.2%.
Also watch forOn December 17, deliveries, revenue, or margin fall below the low end of the latest full-year range.
Why it matters: A higher SG&A share can weigh on profit when fewer homes are delivered. The company set a Q4 range of 10.3% to 10.9%.
Worry ifQ4 SG&A is above 10.9% of housing revenue.
Less concerning ifQ4 SG&A is at or below 10.9% of housing revenue.
Why it matters: KB Home set a Q4 range of 3,000 to 3,500 deliveries. A result below it would deepen the recent year-over-year drop.
Worry ifQ4 deliveries are below 3,000 homes.
Less concerning ifQ4 deliveries reach at least 3,000 homes, within or above the guided range.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,727 loss on $10,000 · 37.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Built to Order homes made up nearly three-quarters of Q3 deliveries. Keeping that share high tests the shift back to this model.
Worry ifBuilt to Order homes are less than 70% of Q4 deliveries.
Less concerning ifBuilt to Order homes are at least 70% of Q4 deliveries.