Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Kyndryl (KD)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.18-3.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.49 → 2.49 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash flow from operations | It raised cash flow from operations to $498 million in Q4 2026. | Broken | cash flow from operations falls below $300 million in 2026-Q4 | Cash from operations: $-310M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$498 million cash flow from operations in 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-310,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KD is an execution-focused technology services business, with a turnaround-like cost program alongside growth in AI and cloud services. The current long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium because recent financial performance is strong while earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the expectations gap is small, so the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between market expectations and the business setup. The pricing assessment is marked justified, with limited fragility in what is priced in rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation and weak execution.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses make another weak report or guidance cut a key risk, even though recent financial performance is in the top half of the industry. Over the multi-year view, management is pursuing workforce savings while expanding AI and cloud services; growth in those services has continued, but the pace in Kyndryl Consult and hyperscaler-related revenue has slowed from earlier levels.
The thesis depends on management turning planned workforce rebalancing into the expected operating expense savings by fiscal 2028 without weakening service growth. A guidance cut would add pressure to the execution case, while Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, KD’s thesis rests on whether AI and cloud growth and planned cost savings can offset fragile earnings quality and the record of recent misses. The setup is intact, but execution remains the central uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Strengthen leadership with new CFO and counsel |
| New CFO appointment may improve financial discipline. |
| Intact |
| CFO departs before 2026-Q4 or governance issues arise |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow hyperscaler and AI-related revenue | A primary condition in Kyndryl's published investment case. The stated target is >=59% YoY hyperscaler revenue growth in FY26. | Broken | hyperscaler revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal Year Highlights ● Hyperscaler-related revenue – In fiscal 2026, Kyndryl recognized $1.9 billion in hyperscaler-related revenue, a 59% increase year-over-year, exceeding its $1.8 billion target for the full year.” ““Strong signings and continued growth in Kyndryl Consult and hyperscaler-related revenue reinforce our confidence in our fiscal 2027 outlook,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Martin Schroeter.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain disciplined share repurchases | A supporting condition in Kyndryl's published investment case. The stated target is repurchase >=11 million shares in FY26. | Intact | share repurchases fall below 5 million shares in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues to expect approximately $200 million of charges in fiscal 2027.” “These workforce rebalancing efforts, once completed, are expected to result in annualized run-rate operating expense savings of approximately $400 to $500 million in the Company’s fiscal year 2028.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.57 → $2.49 · observed estimates
$14.99B → $14.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.57 | $14,993,811,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.57 | $14,993,811,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.57 | $14,993,744,583 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.57 | $14,993,744,583 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.57 | $14,993,744,583 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.57 | $14,993,811,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.57 | $14,993,811,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.59 | $14,996,861,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.59 | $14,993,815,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.59 | $14,996,861,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.59 | $14,996,861,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.59 | $14,996,861,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.56 | $14,922,830,220 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.59 | $14,996,861,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.53 | $14,785,163,560 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.53 | $14,785,163,560 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.48 | $14,788,571,460 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.51 | $14,782,117,958 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.49 | $14,782,077,337 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.