Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-07-07
$31.49-0.82%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 KDP trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median, but our blended $29 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $28–$38. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $35 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$28.00 – $38.00 (median $34.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.64/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $34.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $12.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $5.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $31.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $21.56 | 19.3 | 1.12 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $23.58 | 20.3 | 1.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $38.89 | 19.3 | 2.02 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.13 | 1.7 | 12.43 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $99.40 | 49.2 | 2.02 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $33.45 | 16.6 | 2.02 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $40.13 | 19.3 | 2.08 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $33.92 | 19.3 | 1.76 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $19.92 | 20.3 | 0.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $60.69 | 19.3 | 3.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $46.46 | 1.7 | 27.32 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $155.13 | 49.2 | 3.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $52.20 | 16.6 | 3.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $45.87 | 19.3 | 2.38 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $17.79 | 20.3 | 0.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $80.26 | 19.3 | 4.17 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $61.44 | 1.7 | 36.13 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $205.15 | 49.2 | 4.17 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $69.04 | 16.6 | 4.17 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.