Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.59-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KDP
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 KDP trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median, but our blended $32 fair value is roughly in line with the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $37–$42. Note: our $32 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($37–$42). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $38.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $33.13 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $14.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $31.81 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$37.00 – $42.00 (median $38.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-20
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $7.53 |
| 11.7 |
| 1.08 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $23.00 | 15.9 | 1.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $38.79 | 15.8 | 2.45 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $12.57 | 0.9 | 14.72 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $70.75 | 33.7 | 2.10 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $32.71 | 15.6 | 2.10 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $35.62 | 16.8 | 2.12 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $29.01 | 15.9 | 1.82 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $51.11 | 15.8 | 3.23 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $23.93 | 0.9 | 28.04 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $108.99 | 33.7 | 3.23 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $50.39 | 15.6 | 3.23 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $33.88 | 15.9 | 2.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $67.59 | 15.8 | 4.28 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $31.65 | 0.9 | 37.08 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $144.13 | 33.7 | 4.28 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $66.64 | 15.6 | 4.28 | Analyst | high |