Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.59-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KDP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
KDP — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Other Events. On August 28, 2026, Mott’s LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) and certain other affiliates of the Company, entered into definitive agreements with FHU US Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and certain of its affiliates (collectively, “Chobani”), providing for (i) the redemption of all of the Company’s indirect equity interests in Chobani for aggregate consid…
Why it matters: A rise in operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is more than $800 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 falls below $700 million.
Why it matters: KDP needs to separate successfully. This is key for its plans and finances.
Supportive ifManagement says they hit key goals for the separation by the end of the year.
Worry ifThey announce delays or problems in the separation process.
Why it matters: Lower EPS growth may show issues with costs and inflation.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EPS growth is reported below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EPS growth meets or exceeds 4% year over year.
Why it matters: A successful share buyback shows confidence in the company's future and helps stock prices.
Supportive ifStock price increases by more than 10% following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price declines or remains flat after the buyback announcement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $243 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,772 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The separation will show how well KDP combines JDE Peet's and follows its plan.
Watch forAnnouncement of a specific timeline for the separation of Global Coffee Co. by year-end 2026.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the separation timeline past the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Missing this goal could mean revenue problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth meets or exceeds 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving cost efficiency is key for KDP's growth. It can boost margins and profits.
Supportive ifManagement reports cost savings over 5% in Q2 compared to the last quarter.
Worry ifCost savings reported below 2% in Q2 compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Falling below guidance may show issues with costs and making money.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth is below the low-double-digit range.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth is within or above the low-double-digit range.
Why it matters: Good integration will help revenue grow. It is important for the company's change.
Supportive ifManagement expects to gain at least $100 million from the integration.
Worry ifIf integration benefits are below $50 million, it shows there are problems.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows if KDP can handle inflation and rising costs well.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The split will shape KDP's future plans and focus. It will affect how investors feel.
Watch forKDP will share a timeline for the split by the end of 2026.
Also watch forKDP pushes the split past the end of 2026 because of integration issues.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows good financial health and smart spending.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.23 per share, consistent with prior quarters.
Worry ifDividend reduced or not declared for Q3.
Why it matters: A strong leader could enhance the strategic direction and performance of the new coffee business.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new CEO with a strong track record in the coffee industry.
Worry ifProlonged search for a CEO or appointment of a leader with limited experience.
Why it matters: Good results from JDE Peet's would prove the acquisition was smart. It would help revenue grow.
Supportive ifJDE Peet's revenue contribution exceeds $2.8 billion in Q3.
Worry ifJDE Peet's revenue contribution falls below $2.8 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Better cost efficiency is key for KDP's long-term profits and market strength.
Supportive ifManagement shares a plan to boost cost efficiency by 10% or more.
Worry ifManagement says there are more delays in meeting cost efficiency goals.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would signal ongoing pressures in the coffee market. This could impact overall growth.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. Coffee segment revenue down more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. Coffee segment revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Guidance for adjusted EPS growth shows management's trust in future results.
Watch forManagement guides for adjusted EPS growth in the low double-digit range for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers adjusted EPS growth guidance by a lot.