Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.89+0.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.53 → 2.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KDP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.23 per share | The company maintains a $0.23 quarterly dividend and controls costs despite inflation. | Intact | dividend cut or suspension | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KDP is a consumer staples business with a growth and transformation angle, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the upper half of its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile.
KDP is expensive versus peers, though its valuation has eased recently and the valuation and expectations signals are described as aligned. The evidence does not point to a large expectations gap, and the priced-in fragility assessment is low rather than suggesting that every risk is already reflected.
Near-term results have been neutral overall: the company reported an earnings beat in August, but recent-quarter misses and a past deep miss remain concerns. Revenue growth and capital allocation priorities are on track, while integrating JDE Peet’s and planning its separation are still mixed; near-term guidance is a key risk.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on KDP maintaining its reaffirmed guidance and executing the JDE Peet’s integration and separation plans. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business outlook, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the industry backdrop.
For a 1 to 3 year view, KDP combines growth plans and a supportive sector backdrop with fragile earnings quality, execution uncertainty, and an expensive valuation. The thesis remains intact, but rests on sustained growth and successful delivery of the transformation agenda. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable with EPS guidance near $2.2 for mid-2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.0 in 2026-Q2 |
Diluted EPS: $0.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 10, 20260.04 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete integration of JDE Peet's and achieve global coffee leadership | Integration of JDE Peet's supports global coffee leadership. | Improving | integration delays or failure to separate entities by end 2026 | Qualitative: Key spinoff hire completed, Q3 beat KDP hired Kimberly-Clark President to helm coffee spinoff and beat Q3 2026 estimates, reinforcing integration progress. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain mid-single-digit net sales growth to reach ~$26.15B in 2026 | A primary condition in Keurig Dr Pepper's published investment case. The stated target is ~$26.15B revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $25B in FY26 | Revenue: $7.309B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$26.15B revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20267,309,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.53 → $2.53 · observed estimates
$29.86B → $29.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.53 | $29,864,170,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.53 | $29,866,711,450 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.53 | $29,866,711,450 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.53 | $29,866,711,450 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.53 | $29,866,711,450 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.53 | $29,866,711,450 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.53 | $29,862,670,193 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.53 | $29,884,972,320 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.53 | $29,884,972,320 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.54 | $29,932,252,560 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.54 | $29,932,252,560 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.53 | $29,913,397,375 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.53 | $29,958,467,902 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.53 | $29,960,136,215 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.53 | $29,957,121,571 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.53 | $29,957,417,777 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.53 | $29,957,397,657 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.53 | $29,957,376,299 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.53 | $29,957,376,299 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.53 | $29,957,376,299 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.53 | $29,957,376,299 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.53 | $29,957,376,299 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.53 | $29,957,396,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.53 | $29,957,563,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.53 | $29,957,296,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.53 | $29,957,298,752 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.53 | $29,957,298,752 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.53 | $29,957,298,752 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.53 | $29,954,363,085 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.53 | $29,953,096,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.53 | $29,939,296,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.53 | $29,939,296,419 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.53 | $29,945,349,261 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.53 | $29,945,349,261 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.53 | $29,945,349,261 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.53 | $29,945,349,261 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.53 | $29,934,186,388 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.53 | $29,934,186,388 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.53 | $29,934,186,388 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.52 | $29,933,374,089 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.53 | $29,849,242,615 | 11 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.